NFL Week 4 Best Bets (Predictions for Broncos vs. Jets, Seahawks vs. Lions and More on Sunday)

The Sports Illustrated Betting team shares their favorite bets on the board for Week 4 of the 2024 NFL season.

Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith. / Kevin Ng-Imagn Images

Another week, another 16-game slate in the NFL!

The SI Betting team is back this week with another round of best bets after upsets have spoiled just about everyone's straight up picks and Survivor Picks for the 2024 season.

Do underdogs reign supreme against in Week 4? NFL betting insiders Iain MacMillan and Jen Piacenti are all over two dogs this week as their best bets, and Peter Dewey has a play for a total in what should be one of the most exciting games of the 4 p.m. slate.

Here's a breakdown of each of the best bets to place on Sunday, Sept. 29.

NFL Week 4 Best Bets

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Denver Broncos +7.5 (-115) vs. New York Jets – Iain MacMillan
• Washington Commanders vs. Arizona Cardinals OVER 50 (-112) – Peter Dewey
• Seattle Seahawks +2.5 (-115) vs. Detroit Lions – Jennifer Piacenti 

Denver Broncos +7.5 (-115) vs. New York Jets – Iain MacMillan

Not enough people are talking about how good the Broncos defense has been so far this season. They’re second in the NFL in opponent yards per play, giving up 4.5 yards per snap, and they’re also third in opponent yards per pass attempt allowing only 5.1 yards per throw.

Their pass rush has also been potent through the first three weeks, sacking opposing quarterbacks on 12.36% of opponent drop backs.

The Jets are the better team, but setting them as favorites of over a touchdown is a bit too aggressive in my opinion. I’ll back the Broncos with the points in this one.

Washington Commanders vs. Arizona Cardinals OVER 50 (-112) – Peter Dewey

It’s hard to find a better matchup for the OVER on the slate in Week 4. 

Washington may be 2-1, but it hasn’t looked good defensively, allowing the second most yards per play overall, the second most passing yards and the most passing touchdowns in the NFL.

That should be great news for Kyler Murray and the Arizona offense, which ranks eighth in the NFL in yards per play and 12th in net yards per pass attempt this season. Not only that, but Arizona is fifth in the league in yards per carry, and the Commanders are allowing the fourth most in the league.

Essentially, any game involving this Washington defense has a chance to be a shootout.

On Monday, Jayden Daniels led the Commanders to a score in every possession of their game (outside of kneel downs) against Cincinnati. They’ve now had two games finish with 57 or more points on the season. 

I’ll gladly take the OVER in a game between two of the most exciting young quarterbacks in the NFL.  

Seattle Seahawks +2.5 (-115) vs. Detroit Lions –Jennifer Piacenti

The Seahawks have scored an average of 24.3 points per game this season, while the Lions have scored 20.3.

Defensively, Seattle has also been the better unit, allowing just 14.3 points per game while the Lions have allowed 17.7.

The Lions could have trouble passing the ball vs. Seattle, but they should be able to move the ball successfully on the ground with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. The Seahawks have allowed 4.4 yards per rush while the Lions have averaged an impressive 4.8.  

The Seahawks could have trouble on the ground vs. the Lions who have allowed just 2.76 yards per carry to opposing running backs this  year, but Geno Smith should not have trouble getting the ball to his talented receiving corps. No QB has more completions (77) than Geno Smith this season.  All of the Seahawks’ receivers should find success this week vs. a Lions secondary that has allowed the most yards to wide receivers this season (609).

Last season, Goff was dominant at home with 19 passing touchdowns with a 70.1% and a 107.9 passer rating at Ford Field.

It’s been the opposite story this season. In his two home starts, Goff has completed just 62% of his passes with one touchdown and three interceptions, and he’s tossed only one passing touchdown. 

It seems like the Seahawks are due for a loss, but I don’t see a pathway for the Lions to win this decisively.  

I’m buying the points for Seattle Monday Night, and I’ll also have a sprinkle on Seattle to win outright.

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More NFL Week 4 Betting Stories

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