NFL Week 4 Betting Cheat Sheet (Best Spread, Total, Underdog, Teaser, and Player Prop)

Breaking down the best bets to place for Week 4 of the 2024 NFL season.

Iain MacMillan | Sep 26, 2024

Sep 22, 2024; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray (1) drops back to pass against the Detroit Lions during the second half at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images / Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images

Strap in, folks. Week 4 of the 2024 NFL season is about to begin and with how unpredictable the first three weeks has been, the electricity promises to continue.

As I always do in the weekly Betting Cheat Sheet, I'm going to give you my favorite bet for all major types of wagers you can place including spreads, props, teasers, and more.

You can find my best bet for all 16 games in this week's edition of the "Road to 272 Bets," but if you're just looking for my favorites, you've come to the right place.

All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

NFL Week 4 Best Bets

Best Spread Bet: Broncos +7.5 (-112) vs. Jets
Best Total Bet: Bears vs. Colts UNDER 40 (-110)
Best Upset Pick: Seahawks +150
Best Teaser Bet: Chiefs -1 (vs. Chargers), 49ers -4.5 (vs. Patriots)
Best Player Prop: Kyle Murray OVER 230.5 Pass Yards (-114)

Best Spread Bet: Broncos +7.5 (-112) vs. Jets

My faith in the Broncos comes down to their defense, which ranks second in the NFL right now in opponent yards per play, giving up only 4.5 yards per snap. They're also third in opponent yards per pass attempt allowing just 5.1 yards per throw, which will be huge going against an Aaron Rodgers-led offense. Add in a pass rush that has recorded a sack on 12.36% of opponent dropbacks and we have a recipe for a close game between these two AFC squads.

I think a touchdown spread is a bit too aggressive in this one. I'll take the points.

Best Total Bet: Bears vs. Colts UNDER 40 (-110)

The Steelers' defense has established itself as one of the best in the NFL, ranking third in opponent yards per play and second in opponent points per play. Even more importantly when it comes to a low-scoring game, the Steelers lead the NFL in red zone defense, keeping opponents from scoring a touchdown on just 16.67% of red zone trips against them.

I'm still not convinced by their offense, which is 28th in yards per play at 4.6. That, paired with the poor play by Anthony Richardson to start the season, leads me to think this is going to be a low-scoring affair.

Best Upset Pick: Seahawks +150

I'm looking at the final game of Week 4, a Monday Night Football showdown between the Seattle Seahawks and Detroit Lions, as my upset pick of the week.

The Seahawks' defense has been unbelievable in those games. Mike Macdonald, the former defensive coordinator for the Ravens, maybe in the process of turning this Seahawks team into a defensive juggernaut.

They lead the NFL in opponent yards per play (3.9) while also ranking inside the top five in third-down defense, red zone defense, and opponent points per play. Meanwhile, their offense has been steady, averaging 5.5 yards per play, only 0.2 yards per play fewer than the Lions.

Best Teaser Bet: Chiefs -1 (vs. Chargers), 49ers -4.5 (vs. Patriots)

As always, the main thing we're aiming to do when betting a 6-point teaser is crossing key numbers. Three and seven are the two main key numbers with them obviously being the amount of points as a field goal and a touchdown with an extra point. The secondary key numbers are six and 10.

For the Chiefs, who currently sit as 7-point favorites, we're crossing the two main key numbers of three and seven by bringing it down six points to -1. All we need is the Chiefs to beat an injured Chargers team by two points to cash that leg.

We're also going to bring the 49ers down from -10.5 to -4.5, crossing the main key number of seven and the secondary key number of 10. A field goal win won't be enough for us from the 49ers, but I have faith in them being able to win by at least a touchdown in this lopsided affair.

Best Player Prop: Kyle Murray OVER 230.5 Pass Yards (-114)

Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals have the chance to host the Washington Commanders in Week 4 who have arguably the worst defense in the NFL so far this season. They're allowing 8.0 yards per pass attempt and 255.7 total passing yards per game through the first three weeks.

Murray averages 239.4 passing yards per game in his career so all we're asking him to do is hit his career average against one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL and this bet will be a winner.