NFL Week 6 Best Bets (Predictions for Buccaneers vs. Saints, Texans vs. Patriots and More)

The Sports Illustrated Betting team shares their favorite bets on the board for Week 6 of the 2024 NFL season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans. / Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

Week 6 of the NFL season delivers an interesting slate with a few big favorites, and the SI Betting team has three picks to make -- two spreads and one total -- for this week's action.

NFL betting insider Jennifer Piacenti is looking at a road favorite that could be undervalued with their opponent down their starting quarterback in Week 6.

In the AFC, NFL betting insider Iain MacMillan is backing one of the biggest favorites on the board -- the Houston Texans -- to cover the spread against rookie quarterback Drake Maye in the first start of his career.

Finally, Peter Dewey has a play for a total in one of the more intriguing games on Sunday afternoon between the Washington Commanders and Baltimore Ravens.

Here's a breakdown of the three best bets from our team this week.

NFL Week 6 Best Bets

• Houston Texans -7 (-108) vs. New England Patriots – Iain MacMIllan
• Washington Commanders-Baltimore Ravens OVER 51.5 (-105) – Peter Dewey
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5 (-115) vs. New Orleans Saints – Jennifer Piacenti 

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Houston Texans -7 (-108) vs. New England Patriots – Iain MacMIllan

Even with the Patriots starting rookie quarterback, Drake Maye, I have no faith in their ability to hang with the Texans in what will be a terrible stylistic matchup for New England.

The Patriots’ defense hasn’t done well defending the pass this season, ranking 26th in opponent yards per pass attempt (7.2) and 23rd in opponent dropback EPA. That’s bad news against an electric Texans air-attack that will still thrive even with Nico Collins sidelined.

The reason I have no faith in Maye is he has to play behind a Patriots’ offensive line that allows pressure on 31.4% of dropbacks, the highest rate in the NFL. Things won’t be easy for them against a Texans pass-rush that ranks sixth in sack percentage, taking down opposing quarterbacks on 9.26% of their dropbacks.

I’ll lay the touchdown with Houston. 

Washington Commanders-Baltimore Ravens OVER 51.5 (-105) – Peter Dewey

The Washington Commanders and rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels have gotten off to a great start in 2024, winning four of their first five games to lead the NFC East.

They’ve done it behind an elite offensive attack, ranking No. 1 in the league in points scored and No. 2 in yards per play. The only team ahead of them in yards per play? The Baltimore Ravens, who host Washington on Sunday.

Baltimore scored 41 points in Week 5 against the Cincinnati Bengals, and it has by far the best running game in the NFL with Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry leading the way. The Ravens have 1,056 rushing yards in five games, averaging 6.1 yards per carry. 

Now, they have a prime matchup against a Washington defense that ranks 30th in the NFL in yards per carry allowed (5.1) and has allowed the seventh most yards per play overall in 2024. 

Does that set us up perfectly for an OVER?

I think so, as the Ravens have been susceptible themselves when defending the pass, giving up the second most passing yards in the NFL and nine passing scores through five games. 

Both of these teams come into this game at 4-1 to the OVER, and I wouldn’t be shocked if we see a game in the 30s on Sunday. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5 (-115) vs. New Orleans Saints – Jennifer Piacenti

The Buccaneers offense has looked sharp in Baker Mayfield’s second season with Tampa Bay.  He’s tossed 11 touchdowns with a 72% completion rate.

The Saints will start Spencer Rattler Sunday with Derek Carr set to miss a few weeks. It’s a tall order for the rookie to beat a Todd Bowles defense that has allowed just five passing touchdowns this season- four of which went to veteran Derek Carr. Sure, the Saints can lean on their strong run game, but that won’t exactly be an easy task.  

The Bucs have allowed just 85 rushing yards per game to running backs this season. 

The Saints defense has allowed the eighth-most yards to wideouts this season and the sixth-most passing yards to opposing quarterbacks. I’ll bet the Bucs can win by more than a field goal.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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