Top Shelf Picks: NHL Best Bets Today (Bet the UNDER in Islanders vs. Canucks)

Iain MacMillan | Nov 14, 2024

Nov 15, 2023; Vancouver, British Columbia, CAN; New York Islanders forward Mathew Barzal (13) skates after Vancouver Canucks forward Andrei Kuzmenko (96) in the third period at Rogers Arena. Vancouver won 4-3 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Bob Frid-Imagn Images / Bob Frid-Imagn Images

If there's any sign that my NHL luck has turned and the hot streak is officially over, it's losing two games that went to overtime including one where the team I bet on had a two-goal lead late in the game. That's exactly what happened last night as we lost both the Penguins and Capitals in overtime. The Kings fell short to the Avalanche which completed the reverse sweep.

Now that the hot streak over, is it time for you to fade my picks and take the opposite? Maybe, that's for you to decide. I'm going to stick to my process and hope for the best with my top three picks for tonight's action.

• Season-to-date Record: 36-27-3 (+6.15 units)

Top NHL Picks Today

• Senators -170 vs. Flyers via Caesars
• Sabres -165 vs. Blues via BetMGM
• Islanders vs. Canucks UNDER 5.5 (+114) via FanDuel

Flyers vs. Senators Prediction

The Philadelphia Flyers are a disaster. They enter tonight's game ranking 26th in the NHL in 5-on-5 expected goals percentage and to make matters worse, they're getting horrible goaltender and bad shooting on top of that, ranking 30th and 24th in those two respective stats.

I was high on the Senators coming into this season and they have lived up to expectations. They're fifth in CORSI% and sixth in 5-on-5 expected goals percentage and as a cherry on top, they have the No. 4 powerplay unit. They should be much bigger favorites on their home ice tonight.

Pick: Senators -170

Blues vs. Sabres Prediction

The Sabres advanced metrics don't jump off the page, but they're still better than a Blues team that belongs amongst the worst in the NHL, including ranking 29th in 5-on-5 expected goals percentage.

One thing the Sabres do extremely well which can make up for issues between the blue lines is their shooting. The Sabres are one of the best shooting teams in the NHL, ranking fifth in shooting percentage, scoring on 12.27% of their shots on goal. I'll back them as home favorites against an inferior St. Louis team.

Pick: Sabres -165

Islanders vs. Canucks Prediction

The Islanders and Canucks are two of the best defensive teams in the NHL this season so I'll jump on the UNDER at plus-money. Heading into tonight, they rank third and fourth in expected goals against. The Islanders have also been a horrific shooting team, ranking 30th in shooting percentage, scoring on just 8.15% of their shots on goal.

Expect a low-scoring affair in this late-night matchup.

Pick: UNDER 5.5 (+114)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!