Top Shelf Picks: NHL Best Bets Today (Hurricanes Will Beat Golden Knights in Vegas)

Iain MacMillan | Nov 11, 2024

Feb 17, 2024; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Vegas Golden Knights center Brett Howden (21) skates against Carolina Hurricanes right wing Jesper Fast (71) during the first period at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images / Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images

Mondays mean a new week of NHL action for us to watch and bet on. We stumbled down the stretch last week and my hot streak may be over, but that doesn't mean I'm going to stop.

I'm going to do my best to bounce back in a big way on Monday night and as always, I have three bets locked in for tonight's slate, including a play on the Carolina Hurricanes and Vegas Golden Knights. Let's dive into them.

• Season-to-date Record: 33-21-3 (+9.54 units)

Top NHL Picks Today

• Stars vs. Penguins OVER 6.5 (-105) via BetMGM
• Kings -134 vs. Flames via FanDuel
• Hurricanes -140 vs. Golden Knights via Caesars

Stars vs. Penguins Prediction

The Stars and Penguins are two of the best offensive teams in the NHL this season. They enter this week ranking third and sixth in 5-on-5 expected goals per 60 minutes of play. Both teams have struggled at times to find the back of the net, but they're creating plenty of offensive opportunities which leads me to believe the goals are going to come sooner rather than later.

On top of them being able to create offensive opportunities, they have played poorly in their own end, sporting the sixth and eighth highest expected goals against metrics. I think all of that points to this being a high-scoring affair.

Pick: OVER 6.5 (-105)

Kings vs. Flames Prediction

The Kings have sneakily been one of the best teams from an analytics standpoint this season. They lead the entire NHL in overall expected goals percentage, sporting an expected goal differential of +0.73 per 60 minutes of play.

By comparison, the Flames rank 22nd in that stat while also being one of the worst shooting teams in the league, scoring on just 9.77% of their shots on goal. This bet seems like a no-brainer to me, I'll back the Kings to win on the road.

Pick: Kings -134

Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Prediction

The Golden Knights have won based on great shooting this season, scoring on 14.66% of shots on goal. That's going to work against lesser competition, but relying on sharp-shooting isn't going to fly against teams as good as the Hurricanes.

The Hurricanes lead the league in both 5-on-5 CORSI% and 5-on-5 expected goal differential, whereas the Golden Knights rank 26th and 24th in those two respective stats.

If you believe in advanced metrics, back the Hurricanes in Vegas tonight.

Pick: Hurricanes -140

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!