Top Shelf Picks: NHL Best Bets Today (Take the UNDER in Predators vs. Maple Leafs)

Iain MacMillan | 8 Hours Ago

The Maple Leafs are set as home favorites to the Predators on Wednesday night. / Christopher Hanewinckel-Imagn Images

An overtime loss by the Islanders against the Canadiens on Tuesday night caused us to take a step back with a 1-2 record. It was our second-straight 1-2 night so let's do our best to get back on track on Wednesday.

There are four games for tonight and I have a bet locked in on three of them, including another UNDER bet on a Maple Leafs game.

• Season-to-date record: 61-51-4 (+4.17 units)

Best NHL Picks Today

• Predators vs. Maple Leafs UNDER 6 (-115) via BetMGM
• Kings (-105) vs. Stars via BetMGM
• Golden Knights (-165) vs. Ducks via Caesars

Predators vs. Maple Leafs Prediction

I've loved betting the UNDER in games involving the Maple Leafs this season. They have been surprisingly great defensively and their goaltending has been some of the best in the NHL, leading to them allowing the second fewest goals per 60 minutes at 2.52. Now they get to face a Predators team that scores the fewest goals per 60 minutes at 2.3.

You can lay the price on the Maple Leafs but I think the better value lies on the UNDER.

Pick: UNDER 6 (-115)

Stars vs. Kings Prediction

I continue to bet on the Kings who have arguably been the best team in the NHL when it comes to advanced analytics. They lead the league in 5-on-5 expected goals percentage and fourth in CORSI%. Their high-danger scoring chances differential sits at +1.91 per 60 minutes, the third best mark in the NHL.

They outrank the Stars in all three of those categories, yet are still slight underdogs on their home ice. Dallas ranks fifth in the league in PDO which could be a sign some regression is coming. I'll back the Kings tonight.

Pick: Kings -105

Golden Knights vs. Ducks Prediction

I'm surprised the Ducks are 10-10-3 on the season. They're dead last in the NHL in 5-on-5 expected goal percentage per 60 minutes of play, with an expected goal differential of -0.69. They're also 27th in shooting percentage and have been bailed out by strong goaltending plenty of times this season.

The Golden Knights are the better team from top to bottom and their 11.77% shooting percentage should be enough to overcome Anaheim's goaltending.

Pick: Golden Knights -165

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!