NL Cy Young Odds Shake Up After Disastrous Zack Wheeler Outing

There's a new favorite to win the NL Cy Young award this season.

Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Zack Wheeler. / Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Don't call the NL Cy Young just yet.

Philadelphia Phillies ace Zack Wheeler was in the driver's seat for the award to start the 2024 season, but he's no longer the favorite to win after a brutal showing against the Baltimore Orioles on Sunday.

Wheeler, who entered Sunday's game with a 2.16 ERA, was shelled for nine hits and eight runs over just 4.1 innings of work. The Phillies ended up losing the game, falling to just 8-7 on the season when Wheeler takes the mound.

The Orioles shelled Zack Wheeler today:

4.1 IP, 9 H, 8 ER, 2 BB, 4 SO, 91 P

Season ERA: 2.84 pic.twitter.com/h6PBnKrQua

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) June 16, 2024

The outing bumped Wheeler's season-long ERA up to 2.84, and he now has a Fielding Independent Pitching of 3.49 in 2024. While these numbers are still good enough for Wheeler to make a Cy Young case, oddsmakers don't view him as the clear-cut favorite anymore.

Latest NL Cy Young Award Odds

• Ranger Suarez: +300
• Zack Wheeler: +450
• Tyler Glasnow: +450
• Shota Imanaga: +550
• Chris Sale: +1200
• Max Fried: +1500
• Logan Webb: +1500
• Reynaldo Lopez: +1800
• Sonny Gray: +2200

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Ranger Suarez Is New Favorite to Win NL Cy Young

Wheeler's own teammate -- Ranger Suarez -- overtook him in the odds to win the NL Cy Young, and it's hard to argue with the decision.

The lefty has been dominant in 2024, posting a 1.77 ERA and 2.60 FIP while leading the Phillies to a 13-1 record in his 14 starts. Suarez has a 10-1 record in his 11 decisions.

According to Statcast, Suarez ranks in the 99th percentile in Pitching Run Value, the 90th percentile in expected ERA, and the 81st percentile in strikeout percentage. The lefty has proven to be a tough pitcher to hit all season, but bettors do need to be wary that Suarez has never thrown more than 155.1 innings in a season.

So, he may fatigue down the stretch of the campaign, or the Phillies attempt to limit his usage to prepare for the playoffs.

There are several other contenders (Los Angeles' Tyler Glasnow, and Chicago's Shota Imanaga) that also make sense in this market, but Imanaga has regressed after a torrid start to 2024.

Ultimately, this projects to be a pretty close race for the NL Cy Young, and bettors may want to consider getting back on the train with Wheeler now that he is no longer the favorite.

The Phillies ace still ranks in the 92nd percentile in Pitching Run Value and the 82nd percentile in expected ERA. After allowing six runs to the Marlins earlier this season, Wheeler posted a 4-0 record and a 1.57 ERA over his next five starts.

Don't be shocked if he bounces back with a few more impressive showings after Sunday's nightmare outing.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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