North Carolina vs. Minnesota Prediction, Odds, Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 1

Reed Wallach | Aug 26, 2024

Nov 11, 2023; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels running back Omarion Hampton (28) with the ball in the first quarter at Kenan Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports / Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

Two teams looking to bounce back after underwhelming seasons in 2023 meet on Thursday night to start the college football season. 

North Carolina will start the post-Drake Maye era on Thursday against Minnesota, who is hoping that New Hampshire transfer Max Brosmer will reignite the Golden Gophers offense. With some new pieces entering key positions on both teams, how should we project this opening week matchup? 

Here’s how we’re betting this opening game on Thursday night. 

North Carolina vs. Minnesota Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• North Carolina: +2.5 (-105)
• Minnesota: -2.5 (-115)

Moneyline

• North Carolina: +114
• Minnesota: -137

Total: 50.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

North Carolina vs. Minnesota How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, August 29th
• Game Time: 8:00 PM EST
• Venue: Huntington Bank Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): FOX
• North Carolina Record: 0-0
• Minnesota Record: 0-0

North Carolina vs. Minnesota Key Players to Watch

North Carolina

Max Johnson: Johnson transfers in from Texas A&M, but the veteran is expected to share QB duties with the Tar Heels' incumbent backup Conner Harrell. Johnson, who started five games last season for Texas A&M, has had his college career start and stop multiple times due to injury. Can he find his form on his third team in three seasons?

Minnesota

Max Brosmer: Brosmer will look to open up the Gophers passing game that 119th in EPA/Pass last season. He transfers in from New Hampshire, where he passed for more than 3,000 yards in the last two seasons while combining for 56 passing touchdowns and 14 interceptions. 

North Carolina vs. Minnesota Prediction and Pick

Last season, these two teams met in Chapel Hill with the Tar Heels winning 31-14. In that game, the Gophers couldn’t stop the passing game for UNC as Drake Maye passed for more than 400 yards, but Minnesota did a great job against the Tar Heels run game, limiting Omarion Hampton to 40 yards on the ground. 

Hampton is back with a downgrade at quarterback and on the offensive line with all five starters from last season departing and only two rotational pieces back. 

Minnesota’s defense fell off last season, but the front seven should be a strength with several key contributors back, including the likes of Jah Joyner and Danny Striggow on the defensive line. I believe against a green UNC offensive line on the road in its first start as a unit, this game can be shaky on offense. 

Meanwhile, I do expect the Tar Heels defense to take a small step forward under new defensive coordinator Geoff Collins. This team shut down the Golden Gophers last season despite being below the national average on defense in terms of EPA/Play and success rate, holding the team to 14 points (despite injuries to starting quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis for part of the game). 

It’s worth noting that No. 1 running back for Minnesota Darius Taylor and No. 1 wide receiver Daniel Jackson have been nursing injuries as well, potentially limiting an already mediocre Minnesota offense around a new look quarterback. 

Either way, Minnesota is a slow-paced team that wants to play games close to the vest. PJ Fleck’s group played at the seventh slowest tempo in college football last season.

Last season’s total was at 50.5 and we see the same one here. Despite a monster effort from Maye, this total went under, and due to changes for the UNC offense and the Gophers preference for a physical affair, I’ll go under again. 

PICK: UNDER 50.5

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach and get all his college football bets on betstamp @rw33

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