North Texas vs. Texas State Prediction, Odds and Key Players for First Responder Bowl

Reed Wallach | Dec 30, 2024

Dec 26, 2023; Dallas, TX, USA; Texas State Bobcats head coach GJ Kinne reacts to a call in the first half against the Rice Owls at Gerald J Ford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-Imagn Images / Tim Heitman-Imagn Images

North Texas and Texas State close out their respective seasons in the First Responder Bowl after the turn of the calendar to 2025.

Texas State wasn’t able to achieve the lofty goals set for the roster early in the year, but the team can score a victory as big favorites against an in-state foe that is down several key players on offense, including quarterback Chandler Morris.

With a high total between two fast-paced teams and talented play callers, what’s the best bet to make?

We have you covered below.

North Texas vs. Texas State Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

North Texas: +9.5 (-105)
Texas State: -9.5 (-115)

Moneyline

North Texas: +285
Texas State: -365

Total: 65.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

North Texas vs. Texas State How to Watch

Date: Friday, January 3rd
Game Time: 4:00 PM EST
Venue: Gerald J. Ford Stadium
How to Watch (TV): ESPN
North Texas Record: 6-6
Texas State Record: 7-5

North Texas vs. Texas State Key Players to Watch

North Texas

Drew Mestemaker: As of this writing, the walk-on true freshman is slotted to start the bowl game for the Mean Green. This has been a high-octane offense under head coach Eric Morris that ranked 12th in yards per play and averaged north of 34 points per game. Mestemaker has little experience but will have nearly a month to prepare for this game if he is indeed the starter.

Texas State

Jordan McCloud: The veteran has been well-traveled in his college career and will look for a bowl victory to add to his ledger. The Texas State signal-caller has been up and down this season, but the team has been incredibly potent on offense. The Bobcats average more than three points per drive, top 10 in the country, and are particularly devastating in the passing game, ranking 12th in EPA/Pass.

North Texas vs. Texas State Prediction and Pick

Both teams have brought a ton of volatility to its games all season, and I expect similar when the two meet in the First Responders Bowl.

However, it’s tough to look past the absences on the North Texas side, including starting quarterback Chandler Morris, who transferred to Virginia, the team’s leading pass catcher DT Sheffield, and leading rusher Shane Porter.

The team will face a Texas State team that is elite on the defensive line, top 10 in tackles for loss, but incredibly vulnerable to big plays, ranking outside the top 100 in explosive run rate.

McCloud playing justifies this near double-digit point spread for the Bobcats, but this total is simply too high for a completely unknown quantity in the Mean Green offense. While this game may feature a ton of big plays all over and broken tackles, I can’t make a confident assessment of the North Texas offense to play over on a total in the mid-60s.

At full strength, this game should be full of fireworks and justify the opening total in the high 60s, but with the current information, I will go under as North Texas may not field a viable roster.

PICK: UNDER 65.5