North Texas vs. UTSA Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 12

Reed Wallach | Nov 12, 2024

Sep 14, 2024; Austin, Texas, USA; Texas-San Antonio quarterback Owen McCown (2) throws a pass during the first half against Texas Longhorns at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Wachter-Imagn Images / Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

North Texas will try to shake off an inexplicable loss to Army last week with a short week to face a UTSA win that had a BYE in Week 11. 

Both teams have had ups and downs this season, but UTSA will hope to build some late-season momentum after upsetting Memphis ahead of its BYE week. Both teams are fighting for bowl eligibility and a Friday night win can go a long way for each program. 

Here’s how to bet on Friday night’s Lone Star State showdown. 

North Texas vs. UTSA Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• North Texas: -1.5 (-115)
• UTSA: +1.5 (-105)

Moneyline

• North Texas: -125
• UTSA: +105

Total: 72.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook 

North Texas vs. UTSA How to Watch

• Date: Friday, November 15th
• Game Time: 8:00 PM EST
• Venue: Alamodome
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN2
• North Texas Record: 5-4
• UTSA Record: 4-5

North Texas vs. UTSA  Key Players to Watch

North Texas

Chandler Morris: Morris had some serious issues around the goal line last week, likely costing North Texas an upset win against Army, but he has been able to put up some big-time stats in his first season with the Mean Green, passing for over 3,000 yards already this season. However, it’s hard to look past 10 interceptions, including two in the end zone last week. 

UTSA

Owen McCown: McCown had one of his best games of the season in an upset against Memphis, passing for 280 yards while adding four touchdowns for the Roadrunners. McCown has been smart with the ball all season, totaling 20 touchdowns and four interceptions on the season. Did the Roadrunners turn a corner into the home stretch?

North Texas vs. UTSA Prediction and Pick

I can’t trust North Texas as a road favorite against a similar team in terms of talent and general market rating. 

The Mean Green defense continues to be poor, outside the top 100 in EPA/Play and it offsets an offense that is top 30 in EPA/Play. The unit plays fast and can put up points, but also can’t close teams out with its shaky defense. 

UTSA’s defense may be up to the task against the Mean Green, getting a week to prepare for the team’s frenetic offense that has a shaky-decision maker under center. The Roadrunners have an elite defensive line, ranking top 10 in tackles for loss, and second in EPA/Rush, so there can be a ton of pressure on Morris to make plays. However, to be fair, UTSA’s secondary is outside the top 100 in EPA/Pass. 

Ultimately, I can’t side with North Texas as a road favorite. 

What happens if UTSA doesn’t have a monumental meltdown against Tulsa, blowing a 38-7 halftime lead? The team would’ve won three straight and the game prior to that lost to Rice in the final seconds. 

I’ll grab the short home dog that is potentially trending up out of a BYE week. 

PICK: UTSA +1.5

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach and get all his college football bets on betstamp @rw33

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