Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Potato Bowl

Reed Wallach | 3 Hours Ago

Nov 30, 2024; Pasadena, California, USA; Fresno State Bulldogs running back Bryson Donelson (26) carries the ball during the third quarter against the UCLA Bruins at Rose Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Robert Hanashiro-Imagn Images / Robert Hanashiro-Imagn Images

Northern Illinois and Fresno State travel to Boise State’s famed “smurf turf” to face off in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl.

Northern Illinois had one of the biggest upsets of the season, taking down Notre Dame on the road early in the season, and now will try to cap its season with a bowl game win against Fresno State, who is about to usher in a new era under a new head coach after an up-and-down season.

Who has the edge in the Potato Bowl? We have you covered below.

Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

Northern Illinois: -2.5 (-110)
Fresno State: +2.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Northern Illinois: -130
Fresno State: +115

Total: 42.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State How to Watch

Date: Monday, December 23
Game Time: 2:30 PM EST
Venue: Albertson Stadium
How to Watch (TV): ESPN
Northern Illinois Record: 7-5
Fresno State Record: 6-6

Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State Key Players to Watch

Northern Illinois

Telly Johnson Jr.: With Antario Brown going down with an injury at the end of the regular season, Johnson stepped into the RB1 role and kept the offense afloat, rushing for 80 or more yards in three of four games as the starter (all wins). With Brown likely out, quarterback Ethan Hampton and No. 1 receiver Trayvon Rudolph in the portal, more pressure will land on Johnson.

Fresno State

Joshua Wood: The sophomore backup quarterback is set to start for Mikey Keene, who is in the transfer portal. This is an air-raid offense so a lot of pressure will fall on Wood, who attempted only five passes on the season.

Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State Prediction and Pick

Even with a low total, I can only look towards the under in this matchup as both defenses do an excellent job of limiting chunk plays and making opponents drive the ball the length of the field to generate points.

Both Fresno State and Northern Illinois are inside the top 50 in explosive play rate allowed and particularly sturdy at shutting down each team’s primary source of offense.

For starters, NIU is heavily reliant on the ground game and will be even more so with Hampton in the portal and a downgrade to backup and projected starter as of this writing Josh Holst. While Johnson showcasing plenty of upside, the Fresno State rush defense is elite, top 50 in yards per carry allowed and top 15 in explosive rush defense.

Overall, Northern Illinois averages less than two points per drive, outside the top 100 nationally.

The team earned bowl eligibility with its defense, especially against the pass, which checked in top 10 in EPA/Pass. Further, the team is nails at limiting scoring chances, ranking third in the country in red zone touchdown percentage allowed.

This is pivotal against Fresno State, who is reliant on Keene’s arm to move the ball, 20th in pass play percentage nationally and ranking 111th in EPA/Play. But with Keene out for this one, the Fresno State offense is likely going to suffer quite a bit.

I believe we see a lot of empty drives and a running clock with the early kick out in Boise, Idaho. I’ll take the under.

PICK: UNDER 42.5