Northern Illinois vs. Western Michigan Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 11

Reed Wallach | Nov 4, 2024

Aug 30, 2024; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Western Michigan Broncos quarterback Hayden Wolff (11) throws a pass during the second quarter against the Wisconsin Badgers at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images / Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

Western Michigan is the lone unbeaten left in MAC play, but oddsmakers aren’t buying it. 

The Broncos, at 4-0 in the conference, are a slight home underdog to Northern Illinois, who is 1-3 in league play, on Wednesday night in the opening week of MACtion. Western Michigan, who has been humming on offense, will match up against the best defense in the conference. 

Who has the edge? 

Here’s our full betting preview. 

Northern Illinois vs. Western Michigan Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Northern Illinois: -1.5 (-105)
• Western Michigan: +1.5 (-115)

Moneyline

• Northern Illinois: -115
• Western Michigan: -104

Total: 52.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Northern Illinois vs. Western Michigan How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, November 5th
• Game Time: 7:00 PM EST
• Venue: Waldo Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN2
• Northern Illinois Record: 4-4
• Western Michigan Record: 5-3

Northern Illinois vs. Western Michigan Key Players to Watch

Northern Illinois

Ethan Hampton: Hampton has been banged up at times this season, but the junior quarterback has been shaky at best in a limited Northern Illinois offense all season long. He has passed for more than 200 yards in only one game this season, against Western Illinois, and outside of that game, he has tossed four touchdown passes to five interceptions. 

Western Michigan

Hayden Wolff: Wolff has come on strong this season, posting a 15-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio while completing nearly 69% of his passes in the Broncos offense that looks to be the top offense in the MAC. The Broncos offense is in the top 10 in the country in EPA/Pass this season despite facing two Big Ten defenses already this season. While NIU has an elite defense, the Broncos passing game figures to have the edge at home. 

Northern Illinois vs. Western Michigan Prediction and Pick

Western Michigan’s offense is humming, but it’s worth noting that the team has benefitted from playing four of the worst teams in the league. While Northern Illinois’ record doesn’t indicate an elite team in the league, the team does have a sturdy defense that can be a step up in class for the Broncos. 

However, I don’t believe Northern Illinois has the offense to take advantage of a potentially poor Western Michigan defense.  

The Huskies offense has been rock solid in the run game, ranking top 15 in line yards and 53rd in yards per carry, but isn’t consistent down-to-down, ranking 94th in yards per play. The team has also struggled in close, ranking outside the top 100 in red zone touchdown percentage. 

NIU has scored more than 24 points against one FBS opponent this season, and it's one of the worst teams in the country in UMass. I believe the team will need to get into the high 20s to win this game against Western Michigan’s offense. 

The Broncos offense has thrived under second-year head coach Lance Taylor, who has scored 20 or more in every game against non-Big Ten opponents (Wisconsin and Ohio State on the road). 

Northern Illinois’ pass rush is fine, but the team needs to be at its best this season against Wolff and the Broncos offense. NIU has racked up 23 sacks on the year, 19th in the country, but the unit grades as a below-average defense in terms of pass rush according to Pro Football Focus. 

When Wolff is kept clean, he is cooking defenses. Wolff is completing 74% of his passes with an 11-1 touchdown-to-interception on the season, per PFF.

I think WMU is the better team, and we are getting a cheap price to back the group at home. 

PICK: Western Michigan ML (-104)

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach and get all his college football bets on betstamp @rw33

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