Notre Dame vs. Penn State Final Score Prediction for College Football Playoff Semifinals

Reed Wallach | 17 Hours Ago

Dec 31, 2024; Glendale, AZ, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions running back Nicholas Singleton (10) rushes for a touchdown against the Boise State Broncos during the second half in the Fiesta Bowl at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images / Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images

Penn State and Notre Dame will meet in the Orange Bowl on Thursday night with a spot in the National Championship on the line. 

In a game that is lined as a near coin flip, the margins are tight for each team in the College Football Playoff semifinals. Both Penn State and Notre Dame have disposed of out-matched teams to date but now will face two teams that are close peers and primed for a defensive-minded matchup. 

Let’s get you set for this matchup with updated odds and a final score prediction. 

Notre Dame vs. Penn State Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Notre Dame: -1.5 (-110)
• Penn State: +1.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Notre Dame: -122
• Penn State: +102

Total: 45.5 (Over -104/Under -118)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Notre Dame vs. Penn State Prediction and Pick

There are plenty of questions for both teams' overall effectiveness, but the vulnerability of Notre Dame’s passing game is a key part of the game that can’t be ignored. The Fighting Irish are based around its run game but may be playing with a limited (or out entirely) star running back Jeremiyah Love, who suffered a knee injury in the Sugar Bowl. 

With Penn State’s full deck on offense that has a more varied attack, I believe the Nittany Lions have the ability to put some serious scoreboard pressure on the Irish, as noted in our betting preview this week.

The Nittany Lions have shown that it can create explosive plays in the passing game with the precise Allar (67% completion percentage with 20 big-time throws to seven turnover-worthy plays) ranking top 10 in EPA/Pass. 

Meanwhile, the Notre Dame passing game is very limited. The team is 48th in EPA/Pass with an explosive pass rate that ranks 120th in the country. The team’s best course of action is to use the quick passing game with the likes of Jordan Faison to create manageable third downs and methodically move down the field. 

However, the ND offense may be limited with Jeremiyah Love re-aggravating a knee injury in the Sugar Bowl. While he’s expected to play, he may be limited. A big blow to the team’s most explosive weapon on offense alongside Leonard. 

Further, with Allar’s ability to avoid turnovers, I don’t envision Notre Dame getting many chances to capitalize on a short field like it did in the Georgia game. This Fighting Irish defense led the nation in turnovers gained in the regular season (28), but Penn State is tied for 15th in the nation in turnovers lost with a sure-handed approach on offense. 

There’s not much separating these two teams, but I believe over the course of 60 minutes, the Nittany Lions have the ability to diversify their attack on both sides of the field to punch their ticket to the National Championship Game. 

With questions on the Notre Dame side for what’s an already limited offense, there are plenty of indicators pointing me towards Penn State, who ranks top 10 in EPA/Pass with a future first-round pick in Allar taking timely shots downfield in offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnecki’s unique offensive scheme. 

As long as Penn State avoids dreaded turnovers and gifting Notre Dame short fields, the group should have enough firepower to advance to the National Championship Game. 

Final Score Prediction: Penn State 24, Notre Dame 13

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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