Notre Dame's Odds to Make College Football Playoff Crater After Stunning Loss to Northern Illinois

Reed Wallach | Sep 9, 2024

Sep 7, 2024; South Bend, Indiana, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish wide receiver Jaden Greathouse (1) attempts to catch a pass as Northern Illinois Huskies defensive back Jashon Prophete (1) defends in the second quarter at Notre Dame Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Cashore-Imagn Images / Matt Cashore-Imagn Images

Despite taking home arguably the most impressive win of Week 1, Notre Dame had the worst loss of Week 2, and possibly of the entire season. 

The Fighting Irish, who were being penciled into the College Football Playoff after beating Texas A&M on the road in Week 1, are now seen as relative longshots to make the first ever 12 team postseason in the sport after losing to Northern Illinois as 28 point home favorites on Saturday afternoon. 

Notre Dame went from shorter than -300, which is an implied probability of 75%, to +300 to make the CFP, a 25% chance. 

The Irish have a formidable schedule, but are hamstrung by automatically trying to achieve an at-large bid as Independents and not able to win a conference. A 10-2 Notre Dame team is being priced as having essentially no chance of making the CFP, and even an 11-1 ND group may not even make it. 

Here are Notre Dame’s updated College Football Playoff odds and National Championship odds after the surprising loss at home. 

Notre Dame College Football Playoff Odds

• Notre Dame to Make Playoffs: +300

Notre Dame National Championship Odds

Notre Dame to Win National Championship: +10000

Notre Dame’s Odds to Make CFP Shrink

Notre Dame will likely be on the wrong side of the biggest upset of the entire college football season, a disastrous blow to the teams hopes of competing on the biggest stage in the sport. 

It'll be tough to avoid that type of connection with Notre Dame as the focus picks up on team's overall candidacy to make the CFP, meaning Marcus Freeman's group likely needs to go undefeated the rest of the way to have a chance.

The Irish will have difficult opponents on tap, including Louisville and Florida State at home as well as at Georgia Tech and at USC. 

This week, Notre Dame will try to shake off the loss to Northern Illinois with a road trip to Purdue to take on the Boilermakers. The team is listed as 12.5-point favorites in West Lafayette with a total of 45.5.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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