Nuggets vs. Thunder Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Sunday, March 9

Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets are road underdogs on Sunday.

Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets are road underdogs on Sunday. / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

The biggest game in the NBA takes centerstage at 1 p.m. EST, as the Oklahoma City Thunder – the top seed in the West – host the Denver Nuggets and Nikola Jokic.

OKC is coming off a wild win over the Portland Trail Blazers on Friday – even though it sat all five of its starters in the contest. All of those players are off the injury report and expected to play in this game. 

Meanwhile, the Nuggets went to overtime on Friday to beat the Phoenix Suns behind a monster game from Jokic (31 points, 21 rebounds, 22 assists). 

Not only does this matchup feature two of the best teams in the West, but it also features the top two candidates in the latest MVP odds – Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. 

In what could be a Western Conference Finals preview, who has the edge?

Here’s a complete breakdown of the odds, injuries, prop bets and my prediction for Sunday’s contest. 

Nuggets vs. Thunder Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Nuggets +8 (-112)
• Thunder -8 (-108)

Moneyline

• Nuggets: +260
• Thunder: -325

Total

• 241 (Over -112/Under -108)

Nuggets vs. Thunder How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, March 9
• Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Paycom Center
• How to Watch (TV): ABC
• Nuggets record: 41-22
• Thunder record: 52-11

Nuggets vs. Thunder Injury Reports

Nuggets Injury Report

• Trey Alexander – available
• Vlatko Cancar – available
• PJ Hall – available
• Aaron Gordon – probable
• DaRon Holmes II – out
• Nikola Jokic – probable
• Zeke Nnaji – available
• Julian Strawther – out
• Peyton Watson – available

Thunder Injury Report

• Alex Ducas – out
• Isaiah Hartenstein – available
• Ajay Mitchell – out
• Nikola Topic – out

Nuggets vs. Thunder Best NBA Prop Bets

Denver Nuggets Best NBA Prop Bet

• Nikola Jokic OVER 22.5 Rebounds and Assists (-120)

After putting up 43 rebounds and assists in an overtime win over Phoenix, I’m going back to the well for Jokic in this prop on Sunday. 

The three-time league MVP had 25 and 36 rebounds and assists in his two matchups with OKC earlier this season, and he has at least 23 rebounds and assists in eight of his last 10 games. 

Over that 10-game stretch, Jokic is averaging a whopping 14.2 rebounds and 11.8 assists per game. OKC has struggled on the boards this season (26th in opponent rebounds per game), so don’t be shocked if Jokic gets close to this number on rebounds alone on Sunday. 

Oklahoma City Thunder Best NBA Prop Bet

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 30.5 Points (-125)

Any time that I can bet on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scoring the ball at a number that is below his season average, I have to take it.

SGA is averaging 32.8 points per game this season while shooting 52.6 percent from the field, and he’s scored at least 31 points in six of his last seven games.

While the Nuggets held SGA to 28 points in both of their meetings earlier this season, OKC’s offense has been humming as of late, ranking No. 2 in offensive rating over its last 15 games. While I think an uptempo, high-scoring game favors Denver, it also means that SGA likely will get his.

I’ll gladly back the MVP favorite to push his season average this afternoon. 

Nuggets vs. Thunder Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared my best bet for this game in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points: 

Now, what we’ve all been waiting for, my pick for the game of the day on Sunday.

Even though the Oklahoma City Thunder will have all of their starters back in action after they sat on Friday, I’m not sold on them covering this number against Denver. 

This is a matchup between the No. 1 defense (OKC) and the No. 2 offense (Denver) this season, and these teams split their first two matchups. 

While the Nuggets lost by 15 against OKC earlier this season, these teams haven’t played since November, so there’s not much to take away from those matchups. Both of these teams have fared well against the spread in this spot (OKC is 19-10-2 ATS as a home favorite, Denver is 6-4 ATS as a road dog), but I think eight points is a few too many in this matchup.

The Nuggets have a worse net rating than OKC over their last 15 games, but the Thunder have slipped out of the top five in the NBA in defensive rating during that stretch. 

Nikola Jokic is the great equalizer for Denver against an elite defense, and the Nuggets are finally healthy with Aaron Gordon returning to action after a three-game absence.

The total for this game is also all the way up at 241, as the Thunder have posted the No. 2 offensive rating in the league over their last 15 games. I think a high-scoring game favors the Nuggets in this matchup, as they aren’t nearly as dominant in the half court on defense as the Thunder.

OKC probably still wins this game, but I’ll take the points with a Denver team that has proven to be one of the best in the league after a relatively slow start.  

Pick: Nuggets +8 (-112 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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