Ohio State vs. Texas Prediction, Odds and Key Players for College Football Playoff Semifinals

Reed Wallach | Jan 6, 2025

Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Jeremiah Smith (4) celebrates a first down catch during the second half of the College Football Playoff quarterfinal against the Oregon Ducks at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, Calif. on Jan. 1, 2025. Ohio State won 41-21. / Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Ohio State and Texas meet in the Cotton Bowl as part of the College Football Playoff semifinals. 

The Buckeyes have emerged as the National Championship favorite, unleashing its passing attack on the likes of Tennessee and Oregon en route to the semifinals where it will meet Texas. The Longhorns avoided a near implosion against Arizona State in the Peach Bowl. The Longhorns overtime win sets up a matchup of two of the most talented rosters in college football. 

With Quinn Ewers set to face the team that recruited him, can the Longhorns quarterback lead the team to an upset and a National Championship Game berth? What about Ohio State, who looks to be realizing its ceiling as the best team in college football?

Ohio State vs. Texas Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Ohio State: -5.5 (-118)
• Texas: +5.5 (-104)

Moneyline

• Ohio State: -225
• Texas: +184

Total: 53.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Ohio State vs. Texas How to Watch

• Date: Friday, January 10
• Game Time: 7:30 PM EST
• Venue: Cotton Bowl
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN

Ohio State vs. Texas Key Players to Watch

Ohio State

Will Howard: Howard has enjoyed a strong season, but the Buckeyes talented offense revolved around its run game for much of the regular season. In a loss to Michigan that led to plenty of criticism, the Buckeyes inability to unlock Howard and the passing game was a big talking point. However, the group has exploded in the postseason, and Howard is playing his best. He has passed for more than 300 yards in each game while completing nearly 75% of his passes with five touchdown passes. Ohio State has scored 40 or more in each game. 

Texas 

Quinn Ewers: Ewers was clutch down the stretch in the Peach Bowl, hitting Matthew Golden on fourth-and-long with the game on the line in overtime to extend the game and eventually advance to this game. However, it was far from a clean performance from Ewers, who took three sacks and had a critical interception. Can Ewers play a clean game against an elite Ohio State defense?

Ohio State vs. Texas Prediction and Pick

Ohio State’s market rating is surging up as the team is fresh off a demolition of the No. 1 overall seed Oregon while Texas continues to show shaky play at times. 

The Buckeyes are a big favorite in this one and its hard to look past what the team has done over its last two games to justify this point spread. 

The Longhorns defense is elite, but will surely be tested against the Buckeyes passing game that has leaned into its strength at wide receiver with Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka. The two wide receivers have combined for 23 catches and 442 yards with five touchdowns in the two postseason games. 

Texas’ secondary has proven to be elite, but the team hasn’t faced many elite passing games this season. Going back through the Longhorns season, the team hasn’t faced a top 20 passing game this season – Georgia is the closest at 22nd – and Ohio State checks in fourth in that metric. There’s a case to be made that OSU is first given some of the overall schematic changes its made in the postseason. 

Further, Texas is entering a bit gassed after playing nearly 38 minutes of defense against Arizona State as well as two overtimes. This team will need to be firing on all cylinders to keep up with the Buckeyes, and its fair to question if it truly can keep up. 

Meanwhile, the Buckeyes defense did an excellent job of putting bodies in front of Dillon Gabriel as he dropped back, completely stymying the Oregon offense for the first quarter plus as it built a 34-0 lead. 

The Buckeyes defense has been an elite one all season, top of the country in many statistics, including the best success rate mark in the nation. The Longhorns have shown that it can take the top off of opposing defenses, but a big issue in this one will be that the team’s run game continues to be shaky. 

Ohio State is top five in the country in EPA/Rush, shutting down nearly every run game on its schedule in the run-first Big Ten, and Texas averaged fewer than three yards per carry against Arizona State. A lot of pressure will fall on Ewers to find answers against a Buckeyes secondary that has been nails against the pass, eighth in coverage grading according to Pro Football Focus. 

I like Ohio State in this one due to its ability to show this high of a ceiling while its fair to question if Texas can match it. However, we are paying quite the premium to bet Ohio State against arguably the most talented roster left in the field that isn’t the Buckeyes. 

Instead, I’ll target the Ohio State team total over with its ability to push the ball down the field and find explosives as well as possibly turn over Ewers to create short field opportunities. Ewers has more turnover worthy plays (19) than big time throws (17).

PICK: Ohio State Team Total OVER 29.5 (-118)

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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