Oilers Stanley Cup Odds Skyrocket After Game 5 Win: Can Edmonton Complete Comeback vs. Panthers?

Iain MacMillan | Jun 19, 2024

Jun 18, 2024; Sunrise, Florida, USA; Edmonton Oilers forward Connor McDavid (97) celebrates scoring an empty net goal with defenseman Mattias Ekholm (14) and forward Adam Henrique (19) during the third period against the Florida Panthers in game five of the 2024 Stanley Cup Final at Amerant Bank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports / Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports

The 1942 Toronto Maple Leafs are the only team in NHL history to come back from an 0-3 deficit in the Stanley Cup Final by winning four-straight games to capture the Cup.

The Edmonton Oilers are now two wins away from becoming the second.

The Panthers took a commanding 3-0 series lead against the Oilers and it looked like the Stanley Cup was about to be presented to Florida for the first time in its franchise history. Connor McDavid had other plans, posting back-to-back four-point games, leading the Oilers to victories of 8-1 and 5-3.

Now, the series heads back to Edmonton for Game 6 and if the Oilers manage to win again, we'll have a winner-take-all Game 7 in Sunrise.

Let's take a look at how the Oilers' latest win has affected their odds to win the Cup.

Stanley Cup Odds

Odds listed below are via FanDuel Sportsbook

• Oilers +280
• Panthers -360

The Oilers are still understandably underdogs in the series, but their odds have improved dramatically. They were +700 to win the Cup after their Game 4 win and now sit at +280 after winning Game 5 in Florida. If you translate those odds to implied probability, they have a 26.32% chance of completing the comeback and making history as the second team to every win the Stanley Cup after being down 0-3 in the final.

There are three other examples of teams coming back from an 0-3 deficit to win a series that didn't happen in the final. The 1975 New York Islanders vs. the Pittsburgh Penguins, the 2010 Philadelphia Flyers vs. the Boston Bruins, and the most recent occurrence was the 2014 Los Angeles Kings vs. the San Jose Sharks.

Despite being down 3-2 in the series, the Oilers have been the better team from a metrics standpoint. They have the advantage in expected goals (16.29-15.81), high-danger scoring chances (56-49), and shots on goal (145-135). The Panthers biggest advantage, their goaltending, has evaporated the last two games as Sergei Bobrovsky has looked like a shell of himself in series-clinching games for them.

The Oilers are -125 favorites against the Panthers in Game 6, meaning there's a 55.56% chance we get to see a Game 7 next Monday night.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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