Oklahoma State vs. BYU Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 8

Reed Wallach | Oct 15, 2024

Oct 5, 2024; Stillwater, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma State Cowboys running back Ollie Gordon II (0) during a break in play in the first quarter against the West Virginia Mountaineers at Boone Pickens Stadium. Mandatory Credit: William Purnell-Imagn Images / William Purnell-Imagn Images

BYU’s undefeated season continued with a double digit win at home against Arizona, and will now play host to a struggling Oklahoma State team on Friday night in Week 8 action. 

The Cougars have been one of the biggest surprises this season while the Cowboys have been among the biggest letdowns after making the Big 12 title game last season. Can the Pokes find its form out of the BYE as a massive underdog against an upstart Cougars team? 

Let’s take a look at the odds and our favorite bet. 

Oklahoma State vs. BYU Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Oklahoma State: +10 (-105)
• BYU: -10 (-115)

Moneyline

• Oklahoma State: +285
• BYU: -365

Total: 55.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook

Oklahoma State vs. BYU How to Watch

• Date: Friday, October 17
• Game Time: 10:15 PM EST
• Venue: LaVell Edwards Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Oklahoma State Record: 3-3
• BYU Record: 6-0

Oklahoma State vs. BYU Key Players to Watch

Oklahoma State

Ollie Gordon: Gordon hasn’t been able to follow up his Doak Walker Award winning season in 2024, averaging less than four yards per carry this season as the Pokes offense has sputtered. Overall, the Oklahoma State offense is 116th in EPA/Rush, but is facing a national average rush defense in BYU (69th), can this be the breakout game for Gordon?

BYU

LJ Martin: Martin got banged up in Week 2 against SMU, but returned in style against Arizona, rushing the ball 11 times for 49 yards with a touchdown, adding three catches for 46 yards and a score in the passing game. The sophomore is the top back in the BYU system, only enhancing the team’s ability to move the ball. 

Oklahoma State vs. BYU Prediction and Pick

I think it’s time to sell BYU. 

The Cougars can seemingly do no wrong, undefeated both straight up and against the spread, and certainly in the mix for a Big 12 title and possibly beyond. 

However, if I were to show you just the team’s metrics, the group wouldn’t look as lofty as its record states. The team has a +7 turnover margin this season, which offsets an offense that is 58th in EPA/Play this season. The defense has been sturdy, mainly against the pass, but is outside the top 60 in both EPA/Rush and tackles for loss on the season. 

Out of a BYE week, I’m going to trust Mike Gundy’s bunch to play above this rock bottom expectation. With some quarterback questions due to the poor play of Allan Bowman, this can be the game for Gordon to shoulder the load against a middling BYU front. 

The market has been against BYU the last two weeks, the team closed a three-point underdog at Baylor and inside of a field goal home against Arizona. While wins and covers for the Cougs, the team was -11 in terms of total yards. Looking back even further, BYU was out-gained 367-241 against Kansas State, but benefitted from a +3 turnover margin and a punt return touchdown to win 38-9 at home. 

I believe there is some variance in order for the Cougars, and now with a lofty point spread, I believe Oklahoma State can play to a good enough level to keep this game competitive. 

PICK: Oklahoma State +10

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach and get all his college football bets on betstamp @rw33

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