Ole Miss vs. Arkansas Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 10

Reed Wallach | Oct 29, 2024

Oct 19, 2024; Fayetteville, Arkansas, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks quarterback Taylen Green (10) looks to pass against the LSU Tigers during the first quarter at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images / Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images

Ole Miss will try to keep its College Football Playoff hopes alive but must avoid losing on the road against Arkansas in SEC action.

The Razorbacks have been far more competitive than expected this season, and they may present issues against a banged-up Ole Miss team that hasn’t lived up to its high-flying standards on offense under head coach Lane Kiffin.

Here’s our betting preview for this SEC showdown.

Ole Miss vs. Arkansas Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

Ole Miss: -7.5 (-104)
Arkansas: +7.5 (-118)

Moneyline

Ole Miss: -260
Arkansas: +210

Total: 53.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Ole Miss vs. Arkansas How to Watch

Date: Saturday, November 2nd
Game Time: 12:00 PM EST
Venue: Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium
How to Watch (TV): ESPN
Ole Miss Record: 6-2
Arkansas Record: 5-3

Ole Miss vs. Arkansas Key Players to Watch

Ole Miss

Jaxson Dart: Dart was efficient in the Rebels’ win against Oklahoma, completing more than 70% of his passes for 311 yards. The quarterback has thrived all season despite playing behind a banged up offensive line and last week not having wide receiver Tre Harris available due to a lingering injury. Dart has a ton of pressure on him as the ground game has started to lose its potency, can the team get healthy and show out against Arkansas on the road?

Arkansas

Taylen Green: Green has shown out all season, his first in SEC play. He has passed for more than 2,000 yards while adding nearly 400 yards on the ground. He has combined for 16 touchdowns and seven interceptions this season.

Ole Miss vs. Arkansas Prediction and Pick

While Lane Kiffin is known for being the architect of high-powered offenses, it hasn’t resulted in overs in the betting market.

The Rebels have been an under-machine this season, going under the closing total in seven of eight games in 2024. The team’s offense has been elite, but the defense has far surpassed expectations. Further, with injuries mounting on the offensive side of the ball, the team has struggled to run up the scoreboard in SEC play, failing to score more than 27 points in four contests.

The team will travel to Fayetteville to take on Arkansas, who has been vulnerable to big passing plays, but has also showcased a strong defensive line that can put the Rebels in obvious passing downs. The Razorbacks defense is 38th in EPA/Play on early downs, and 36th in average third and fourth down success rate. Ole Miss has struggled on third down relative to expectations, only 49th in third and fourth down success rate.

Meanwhile, we saw Arkansas implement a rush-heavy script against Tennessee in a stunning upset a few weeks back, and can we see something similar here?

Arkansas is an elite rushing unit, top 10 in the country in success rate on the ground. Further, the team has been fantastic at extending drives, converting 48.5% of third downs which is 12th in the country.

I like the Hogs to be a running dog in this one and keep it within score, and possibly pull the upset.

PICK: Arkansas +7.5