Olympic Men's Marathon Odds and Prediction: Eliud Kipchoge Aims for Third Straight Gold Medal

Iain MacMillan | Aug 9, 2024

Apr 17, 2023; Boston, MA, USA; Eliud Kipchoge of Kenya and Benson Kipruto of Kenya lead the men s elite pack during the 2023 Boston Marathon. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports / Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports

One of the best events of the Olympics will take place on the final days as the men's marathon is set to take place on Saturday and the women's will take place on Sunday.

Runners will take on one of the most challenging marathon courses they will have ever raced. The route will include a 511-foot climb between the 14.2k to 20.3k mark. That climb is over six times as high as the famous "Heartbreak Hill" portion of the Boston Marathon, which measures around 150 feet.

The men's race is also expected to be wide open. There are five different runners with odds of +850 or shorter and 10 different runners with odds of 29-1 or shorter. Marathon legend, Eliud Kipchoge from Kenya, will attempt to win his third straight Olympic gold in the race. The 39-year-old has a chance to become the first person to win three consecutive marathon gold medals at the Olympics.

Let's take a look at the list of betting odds to win the men's marathon and then I'll give you my prediction.

Men's Marathon Odds

Below are the odds for the top 20 runners to win the men's marathon Gold. Odds are via FanDuel Sportsbook.

• Benson Kipruto (KEN) +105
• Victor Kiplangat (UGA) +220
• Eliud Kipchoge (KEN) +370
• Deresa Geleta (ETH) +650
• Sisay Lemma (ETH) +850
• Alexander Mutiso (KEN) +1100
• Kenenisa Bekele (ETH) +1600
• Morhad Amdouni (FRA) +2300
• Yemaneberhan Crippa (ITA) +2300
• Stephen Kissa (UGA) +2900
• Tebello Ramakongoana (LES) +4200
• Andrew Rotich Kwemoi (UGA) +4200
• Kaan Kigen Ozbilen (TUR) +8000
• Tadesse Abraham (SUI) +8000
• Abdi Nageeye (NED) +8000
• Gashau Ayale (ISR) +10000
• Richard Ringer (GER) +10000
• Ibrahim Chakir (ESP) +10000
• Leonard Korir (USA) +10000
• Patrick Tiernan (AUS) +12000

Benson Kipruto is the betting favorite to win the gold medal at +105 odds, giving him an implied probability of 48.78%. He most recently won the 2024 Tokyo Marathon with a time of 2:02:16.

Kipchoge is third on the odds list at +370, giving him a 21.28% chance of winning his third straight Olympic gold.

Men's Olympic Marathon Prediction

The most popular runner in this race is going to be Kipchoge, but he's overvalued in the betting market due to his name recognition and popularity. Not only is his age going to be a factor, but he's never had major success at hilly courses. He has only raced one course known for its hills, the 2023 Boston Marathon, and he finished sixth.

The best pure marathon runner is Kipruto, the betting favorite, but we have to look at this race differently than the World Marathon Majors. The unfathomable amount of elevation the Paris course is going to challenge these runners with means experience running hilly courses is going to prove vital to their success.

I think the betting value lies with the Ugandian, Victor Kiplangat, at +220. His career personal best is only 2:05:09, which he ran at the Hamburg Marathon in 2022, but of the top competitors, he's the one who has had the most success on hilly courses.

Ugandans are typically known as being great hill runners and Kiplangat is no exception to that trend. He has a history of mountain running in his career, including winning the 2017 World Mountain Running Championship. There is no other competitor in this race that has the resume and experience running hilly courses more than Kiplangat, which gives him a leg up on the rest of the field.

Pick: Victor Kiplangat +220

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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