Olympic Tennis Odds: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Carlos Alcaraz Prediction for Semifinal Match

Iain MacMillan | Aug 1, 2024

Aug 1, 2024; Paris, France; Carlos Alcaraz of Team Spain hits the ball during the Paris 2024 Olympic Summer Games at Stade Roland Garros. Mandatory Credit: Andrew P. Scott-USA TODAY Sports / Andrew P. Scott-USA TODAY Sports

We're down to the final four tennis players vying for Olympic gold in the men's single competition at the Paris Summer Games.

As a surprise to few, Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic make up two of the final four competitors. What may surprise fans of the game is who they'll each be facing in the semi-finals Alcaraz will take on Canadian, Felix Auger-Aliassime while Djokovic will face Lorenzo Musetti from Italy.

The first of two semifinal matches will take place at 7:30 am et on Friday between the Spaniard and the Canadian. Let's take a look at the odds and then I'll give you my pick.

Alcaraz vs. Auger-Aliassime Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline:

• Carlos Alcaraz -650
• Felix Auger-Aliassime +450

Total Sets:

• OVER 2.5 (+185)
• UNDER 2.5 (-275)

Alcaraz vs. Auger-Aliassime Prediction

Alcaraz is a sizable favorite against the Canadian with his odds set at -650, meaning you would have to bet $650 on him to profit $100 if he's able to advance to the final. If you translate his odds to implied probability, he has an 86.67% chance of defeating Auger-Aliassime.

So, where does the betting value lie?

You may be surprised to find out these two are 3-3 against each other throughout their careers. With that being said, all three wins by the Canadians came in the first three meetings between them when Alcaraz was still a teenager.

Since then, not only has Alcaraz gone 3-0 in their matches, but he hasn't lost a single set to the Canadian. Their most recent just came last month at this year's French Open on the same court as their meeting this Friday. The Spaniard dominantly won that match, 6-3, 6-3, 6-1.

Should we expect a different result this time around? Likely not. Auger-Aliassime has had a bit of an underwhelming year in singles play up until this point, but was able to pull off back-to-back upsets against Daniil Medvedev and Casper Ruud. Still, that's not enough to convince me Alcaraz will have any issue with him.

If you don't want to lay -650 juice on Alcaraz to win, the route for you may be to bet on him to pull off the two-set sweep and win 2-0. You still need to lay -200 odds, but it's the best bet you can place if you have faith in him.

Prediction: Alcaraz wins 2-0

---

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.