Olympic Women's Marathon Odds and Prediction: Hellen Obiri and Sifan Hassan Set as Cofavorites

Iain MacMillan | Aug 9, 2024

Nov 5, 2023; New York, NY, US; Elite women marathoners, are shown in the Bronx. Hellen Obiri (far right) (KEN) went on to win the race. Mandatory Credit: Kevin R. Wexler-The Record / Kevin R. Wexler / USA TODAY NETWORK

The women's marathon will serve as one of the final Olympic events on Sunday morning.

The best women distance runners on the planet will tackle the challenging course through the streets of Paris. The men will run the course on Saturday morning and then the women will take it on the following day.

Let's take a look at the list of odds to win the gold medal in the women's marathon and then I'll give you my prediction.

Women's Olympic Marathon Prediction

Below are the top 15 runners on the odds list to win the Olympic gold medal in the women's marathon, via FanDuel Sportsbook.

• Hellen Obiri (KEN) +185
• Sifan Hassan (NED) +185
• Tigst Assefa (ETH) +470
• Amane Beriso Shankule (ETH) +600
• Peres Jepchirchir (KEN) +600
• Alemu Megertu (ETH) +750
• Sharon Lokedi (KEN) +1000
• Lonah Chemtai Salpeter (ISR) +1500
• Mekdes Woldu (FRA) +2500
• Fatima Ezzahra Gardadi (MAR) +3700
• Calli Hauger-Thackery (GBR) +4500
• Joan Chelimo (ROU) +4500
• Helen Bekele Tola (SUI) +6500
• Charlotte Purdue (GBR) +6500
• Delvine Relin Meringor (ROU) +8000

Hellen Obiri from Kenya and Sifan Hassan from the Netherlands are cofavorites to win the marathon gold medal at +185, which means they each have an implied probability of winning of 35.09%.

Women's Olympic Marathon Prediction

I'm following the same strategy when picking a winner at this event as I used for the men's course and that's to target the runner that can tackle the historically hilly course that Paris is throwing at these competitors.

On the men's side, Ugandans are widely known as the best hill runners, but the country doesn't have a competitor on the women's side. That's going to make this strategy a little bit more tricky but there's one name that sticks out among the rest when trying to find a runner that has proven they can handle hills already.

That runner happens to also be the defending gold medalist from the 2020 Summer Games, Peres Jepchirchir at +600 odds. On top of winning the last Olympic games, she has won both the New York Marathon (2021) and the Boston Marathon (2022). She has also proven that she still has what it takes to win in 2024, winning the London Marathon just a few months back.

Her biggest competitor, the betting cofavorite, is Hellen Obiri. She has also won the two World Marathon Majors that are known as the most hilly in Boston and New York, but with her being given +185 odds to win, there's more betting value on her fellow Kenyan, Jepchirchir.

Pick to win: Peres Jepchirchir +600

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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