Opening Olympic Basketball Odds Suggest United States Has Over 80 Percent Chance to Earn Gold Medal

Team USA is heavily favored to win the gold medal in men's basketball in the 2024 Olympics.

USA forward Lebron James. / Candice Ward-USA TODAY Sports

Olympic basketball has run through the United States for several years, and LeBron James, Steph Curry, Kevin Durant, and others highlight an All-Star cast that will represent the United States in Paris in the 2024 Olympics.

James was named as the athlete who will be the Flag Bearer for Team USA, which is a massive honor.

Fit to lead 👑

The moment LeBron James found out he will be the first 🇺🇸 #USABMNT athlete to serve as a @TeamUSA Flag Bearer. pic.twitter.com/kEWK45BBQH

— USA Basketball (@usabasketball) July 22, 2024

There's no doubt that Team USA has the most talent of any team in the Olympics, with a lineup full of All-Star players, including a bench unit that has featured Anthony Davis, Bam Adebayo, Tyrese Haliburton, Anthony Edwards and Jayson Tatum. Those players alone would form the best squad in the world outside of the current Team USA roster.

The first games for this year's Olympics will take place on Saturday -- the start of Group Play -- with Team USA making its Olympic debut against Serbia on Sunday.

Oddsmakers are expecting Team USA to take home the gold for the fifth straight Olympics, setting the Americans as odds-on favorites.

Odds to Win Olympic Gold Medal in Men's Basketball

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• USA: -500
• Canada: +1100
• France: +1200
• Serbia: +1600
• Greece: +2000
• Germany: +3000
• Australia: +4000
• Spain: +5000
• Brazil: +10000
• South Sudan: +25000
• Puerto Rico: +30000
• Japan: +50000

Based on these odds, Team USA has an 83.33 percent chance to win the gold medal, while no other team has higher than an 8.33 percent chance.

So, it would be a shocking upset if the USA didn't finish atop the podium at the end of the men's basketball tournament.

Team USA Massively Favored to Win Gold Medal

It shouldn't come as a surprise that Team USA is favored to win the gold medal, but there are still some concerns ahead of the start of Group Play.

First off, forward Kevin Durant has not played in exhibitions for Team USA as he is dealing with a calf strain, and not having Durant would be a concern for the Americans.

Durant led Team USA to gold in Tokyo in 2021 (the 2020 Olympics), and he'd likely slide into the starting lineup alongside LeBron James and Joel Embiid in the frontcourt if he is healthy.

With Durant back, that would bolster the bench unit for Team USA even more, as Devin Booker could potentially move to the bench alongside Anthony Edwards in the backcourt.

Not only that, but Team USA had a scare in exhibitions, beating South Sudan by just one point as a 43.5-point favorite. South Sudan is +25000 to win gold this summer, but fans shouldn't worry too much as the Americans usually find another gear once the games start counting in the Olympics.

I'd take Team USA over the field to win, but the Olympics can offer some variance since they are single games in the elimination stage and not a seven-game series like the NBA playoffs.

France, Canada, Serbia Viewed as Top Contenders for Gold Medal

Several star NBA players are playing in the Olympics, including Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Canada), Jamal Murray (Canada), Rudy Gobert (France), Victor Wembanyama (France), Nikola Jokic (Serbia) and Giannis Antetokounmpo (Greece).

While no team has shorter than +1100 odds, some teams could give Team USA a run for its money, especially if they get hot shooting the ball.

France is the first team I want to focus on, as even though it doesn't have great guard play, Gobert and Wembanyama can be a nightmare at the rim with their shot-blocking ability and the fact that the Olympics are played under FIBA rules and not NBA rules.

That size advantage makes the presence of Embiid, Davis, and Adebayo even more important for the Americans, as foul trouble for any of those players could open things up for the French in the paint.

Serbia is in the same group as the U.S. and will be the opening opponent for the Americans on Sunday. While Team USA did win an exhibition against Serbia, it is worth noting that Nikola Jokic may be the best player in the world, and he alone may be able to carry Serbia to a few wins in the Olympics.

Ultimately, none of these teams have the talent up and down the roster that Team USA does, but they could pull off an upset in a one-game, winner-takes-all format.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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