Orioles vs. Mariners Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers for Thursday, July 4

Reed Wallach | Jul 4, 2024

Jun 29, 2024; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson (2) throws to first base during the seventh inning against the Texas Rangers at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports / Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

The Baltimore Orioles will look to complete a three game sweep of the AL West leading Mariners, who don't appear to be on the same level as Baltimore yet.

The Orioles may be at its best on July 4th, with Cy Young front runner Corbin Burnes toeing the slab against a Mariners lineup that is struggling to keep up against both Baltimore's pitching staff and lineup.

Here's the full betting preview for Orioles vs. Mariners on Thursday with all betting information and our best bet.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Orioles vs. Mariners Odds, Spread and Total

Run Line

• Orioles: -1.5 (+122)
• Mariners: +1.5 (-146)

Moneyline

• Orioles: -154
• Mariners: +130

Total: 7 (Over -110/Under -110) 

Orioles vs. Mariners How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, July 4th
• Game Time: 4:10 PM EST
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• How to Watch (TV): MASN2
• Orioles Record: 55-31
• Mariners Record: 47-41

Orioles vs. Mariners Probable Pitchers

Corbin Burnes: 9-3 (2.28 ERA)

Bryce Miller: 6-7 (3.88 ERA)

Orioles vs. Mariners Key Players to Watch

Baltimore Orioles

Corbin Burnes: Burnes hasn’t missed a beat since being traded from the Brewers to the Orioles, ranking in the 100th percentile in terms of run value according to MLBStatcast. He has a 2.28 ERA with a blistering fastball and an elite ability to limit hard contact, ranking in the 88th percentile. Burnes will face a struggling Mariners lineup where he can bolster his Cy Young candidacy.

Seattle Mariners

Julio Rodriguez: J-Rod isn’t living up to his MVP billing thus far. The Mariners lineup is struggling and Rodriguez isn’t remaining patient at the dish, cashing on 37% of pitches. While he is due some positive regression, he has an xBA of .273, far higher than his actual batting average of .244, but his inability to wait for pitches to hit is also suppressing his hitting numbers. 

Orioles vs. Mariners Prediction and Pick

I’ll back Baltimore on Thursday with AL Cy Young front runner Burnes on the mound against a lackluster Mariners lineup. 

Seattle’s offense continues to limit the team’s upside, ranking 27th in OPS this season and hitting a big league low .203 over the last 30 days. 

The O’s are justified favorites with Burnes on the mound. The righty has a 2.28 ERA with elite control in terms of limiting walks and hard-hit percentage, top 80 percentile in each, which will keep down the Mariners struggling offense. 

Further, Baltimore offense has far higher upside to support Burnes’ pitching. The lineup is tied with the Dodgers for the best OPS in the big leagues, a far gap between the two, and enough for me to bet on the Orioles as road favorites. 

PICK: Orioles -154

---

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.