Orioles vs. Red Sox Prediction, Odds and Probable Pitchers for Monday, Sept. 9 (Trust Brayan Bello)

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Baltimore Orioles-Boston Red Sox matchup on Monday night.

Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Brayan Bello. / Paul Rutherford-Imagn Images

The Boston Red Sox have fallen back to just one game over .500 on the season, pushing them further from the final wild-card spot in the American League than they’d like at this point in the final month of the regular season. 

Boston will look to turn things around on Monday night against the No. 1 wild card team in the AL – the Baltimore Orioles. Baltimore is just half a game back for the New York Yankees in the AL East, but it dropped back-to-back games to close out the weekend.

Brayan Bello is on the mound for Boston in this game against Baltimore Cade Povich, a rare pitching advantage for a Boston team that hasn’t exactly had a great ERA – especially out of the bullpen – in 2024.

Let’s dive into the odds, players to watch and my prediction for this AL East battle. 

Orioles vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line

• Orioles -1.5 (+160)
• Red Sox +1.5 (-192)

Moneyline

• Orioles: +102
• Red Sox: -122

Total

• 9.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Orioles vs. Red Sox Probable Pitchers

• Baltimore: Cade Povich (2-7, 5.76 ERA)
• Boston: Brayan Bello (12-7, 4.75 ERA)

Orioles vs. Red Sox How to Watch

• Date: Monday, Sept. 9
• Time: 7:10 p.m. EST
• Venue: Fenway Park
• How to Watch (TV): NESN, MASN
• Orioles record: 82-62
• Red Sox record: 72-71

Orioles vs. Red Sox Key Players to Watch

Baltimore Orioles

Gunnar Henderson: Over the last seven days, Henderson has been hitting .417 with three home runs, pushing him to 36 long balls during the season. He’s been decent against Bello in his career, going 3-for-13 with a homer. He’s a player that I’m eyeing in the prop market on Monday.

Boston Red Sox

Brayan Bello: On the surface, Bello doesn’t look to be having a good season – he has a 4.75 ERA – but he’s had just three starts since July 1 where he’s allowed more than three earned runs. Over that stretch, Bello has a 3.95 ERA and 3.79 FIP while leading Boston to a 9-3 record in 12 outings. 

Orioles vs. Red Sox Prediction and Pick

I love Boston as a slight favorite at home in this matchup.

As I mentioned above, Bello has pitched well over the last two months, nearly erasing a poor June showing. 

He gives Boston an advantage in the early innings compared to Povich, who has a 5.76 ERA and has allowed five or more earned runs in four of his last seven starts. Yes, Povich did shut down the Chicago White Sox in his last outing, but they’re far and away the worst team in baseball. 

Baltimore is 17-16 straight up when set as an underdog this season, but I can’t get behind Povich, who lost a start to Boston earlier in 2024. 

Pick: Red Sox Moneyline (-122)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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