Pacers vs. Heat Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Thursday, Jan. 2

The Heat are 4-2 straight up on the second night of a back-to-back this season.

The Heat are 4-2 straight up on the second night of a back-to-back this season. / Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images

It’s been a tough start to the season for the Indiana Pacers, as they blew a lead against the Milwaukee Bucks on New Year’s Eve to fall two games under .500.

Now, Tyrese Haliburton and company will hit the road to play the Miami Heat on Thursday night. Miami is playing the second night of a back-to-back after it won by 11 against the New Orleans Pelicans on Wednesday.

Miami has remained in the mix for a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference even though
Jimmy Butler has missed a lot of time, and it comes into this game with a 3-3 against the spread record on the second night of back-to-backs. 

Indiana has been awful on the road in the 2024-25 season, ranking 19th in the NBA in net rating while posting a 8-12 record. Can it right the ship in Miami?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for this Eastern Conference showdown. 

Pacers vs. Heat Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Pacers +1.5 (-108)
• Heat -1.5 (-112)

Moneyline

• Pacers: +105
• Heat: -125

Total

• 224 (Over -112/Under -108)

Pacers vs. Heat How to Watch

• Date: Thursday, Jan. 2
• Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: Kaseya Center
• How to Watch (TV): Bally Sports Sun, Bally Sports Indiana
• Pacers record: 16-18
• Heat record: 17-14

Pacers vs. Heat Injury Reports

Pacers Injury Report

• Enrique Freeman – doubtful
• Isaiah Jackson – out
• Quenton Jackson – doubtful
• Tristen Newton – out
• Aaron Nesmith – out
• James Wiseman – out

Heat Injury Report

• Not submitted yet

Pacers vs. Heat Best NBA Prop Bets

Indiana Pacers Best NBA Prop Bet

• Bennedict Mathurin OVER 5.5 Rebounds (-145)

This is a great matchup for Pacers wing Bennedict Mathurin, as Miami ranks 24th in the NBA in opponent rebounds per game.

In the 2024-25 season, Mathurin is averaging 6.2 rebounds per game, picking up at least six in eight of his 14 games since Dec. 1. He also had a 12-rebound game against the Heat earlier this season. 

Miami Heat Best NBA Prop Bet

• Tyler Herro OVER 24.5 Points (-105)

Former Sixth Man of the Year Tyler Herro is having a terrific 2024-25 season, averaging a career-high 24.3 points per game while shooting 47.7 percent from the field and 41.0 percent from 3.

Herro has 25 or more points in three straight games, and there’s a chance he sees a bigger role on Thursday if Jimmy Butler sits out the second night of a back-to-back. 

Indiana (23rd in defensive rating) is a favorable matchup for Herro, as he dropped 28 and 20 points on the Pacers already this season. The former first-round pick is also attempting 17.6 shots and 9.7 3s per game (both career-highs) giving him a strong floor when it comes to this prop. 

Pacers vs. Heat Prediction and Pick

Before betting on this game, bettors need to check the Miami injury report – whenever it ends up getting released – to see the status of Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro and others.

The Heat knocked off the Pelicans without Terry Rozier (suspension) on Wednesday, but the veteran guard should return to action on Thursday.

The Pacers have been a tough team to bet on this season, especially on the road where they are just 9-11 against the spread. Tyrese Haliburton’s shooting splits fall off a cliff on the road, and the All-Star guard simply has not been the same player as he was in the 2023-24 season. 

Miami is rolling a bit right now, winning two straight games and moving to 10-5 straight up at home. The Heat are also 4-2 straight up on the second night of a back-to-back this season.

Overall, the Heat are a top-10 team in net rating this season while Indiana is No. 20, and the Pacers are just 19th in the NBA in road net rating. I’m not sure we can give the Pacers the benefit of the doubt much longer just because they made the Eastern Conference Finals last season. 

Don’t be shocked if Miami pulls out another win at Kaseya Center on Thursday. 

Pick: Heat Moneyline (-125)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.