Padres vs. Dodgers Prediction, Odds and Probable Pitchers for NLDS Game 5 (Trust Darvish)

Who advances to the NLCS on Friday night?

San Diego Padres pitcher Yu Darvish. / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

The Los Angeles Dodgers shut out the San Diego Padres in Game 4 of the NLDS, forcing a winner-take-all Game 5 in Los Angeles on Friday night.

With the New York Mets already waiting to face the winner of this game in the NLCS, both the Dodgers and Padres would love a stress-free win to save some bullpen arms for Game 1 of that series on Sunday.

Unfortunately, playoff baseball doesn’t usually work that way.

The Dodgers are favored at home in this one, but they’ll need Yoshinobu Yamamoto to pitch much better than he did in Game 1. Los Angeles won that game, but the rookie allowed five runs in three innings (15.00 ERA), forcing Los Angeles to make a comeback to win. 

He’ll take on San Diego righty Yu Darvish, who was lights out in Game 2, helping the Padres steal a game on the road. 

These squads have played a couple of blowouts (Game 2 and Game 4) and a couple of close contests (Games 1 and 3). How should we bet on Game 5?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, key players to watch and my prediction for the series finale in the NLDS. 

Padres vs. Dodgers Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Run Line 

• Padres +1.5 (-175)
• Dodgers -1.5 (+145)

Moneyline

• Padres: +124
• Dodgers: -148

Total

• 8 (Over -102/Under -118)

Padres vs. Dodgers Probable Pitchers

• San Diego: Yu Darvish (7-3, 3.31 ERA)
• Los Angeles: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (7-2, 3.00 ERA)

Padres vs. Dodgers How to Watch

• Date: Friday, Oct. 11
• Time: 8:08 p.m. EST
• Venue: Dodgers Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): FOX
• Series: Tied 2-2

Padres vs. Dodgers Key Players to Watch

San Diego Padres

Yu Darvish: Darvish was lights out in Game 2 in Los Angeles for the Padres, tossing seven innings of three-hit, one-run ball. The Padres would love a similar performance in Game 5, especially since their offense finally cooled off in Game 4, failing to score. Darvish has a 2.56 ERA in his last six postseason starts, dating back to the 2020 season. 

Los Angeles Dodgers

Mookie Betts: During his playoff career, Betts has struggled a bit, but he’s putting some of that narrative to rest over the last two games. Betts has homered in back-to-back contests, going 4-for-9 with three runs scored and three runs batted in. He could be the difference for a Dodgers offense that struggled in Game 2 against Darvish. 

Padres vs. Dodgers Prediction and Pick

I’d expect both teams to have a quick hook with their starters since this is a win-or-go-home game, but Darvish is by far the superior starter to trust in the playoffs.

Dating back to 202, Darvish has not allowed more than three runs in a single postseason start, pitching at least five innings in every game. Two of those starts have come against Los Angeles, and the Padres righty has a career ERA of 3.88 in the playoffs.

Meanwhile, Yamamoto looked overmatched in his playoff debut, allowing five hits, two walks and five runs in just three frames. It’s possible that he has some of the jitters out after a bad Game 1, but the Padres clearly were able to get to him in that matchup. 

Both of these teams have posted bullpen ERAs of under 3.00 in the playoffs, so it’s very possible that this game comes down to which starter allows his team to gain the lead early. 

I’ll side with Darvish and the Padres to pull off the upset in Game 5. 

Pick: Padres Moneyline (+124)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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