Painting Corners: Best MLB Prop Bets Today (Aaron Judge, Dylan Cease Among Top Prop Targets)

Breaking down the best prop bets for the Major League Baseball action on Monday, June 10.

San Diego Padres starting pitcher Dylan Cease. / Peter Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

There are just seven games in action in Major League Baseball on Monday night, but that’s not going to stop us from finding some value in the prop market!

Per usual in these picks, I’m targeting a pair of starting pitchers, including San Diego Padres ace Dylan Cease in a great matchup against the Oakland A’s. 

Plus, with Aaron Judge remaining as hot as ever at the dish, there’s a way to bet on him as well in the New York Yankees’ matchup with Seth Lugo and the Kansas City Royals. 

Let’s break down these picks for Monday, June 10: 

Best MLB Prop Bets for Monday, June 10

• Corbin Burnes UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (-105)
• Dylan Cease UNDER 4.5 Hits Allowed (-150)
• Aaron Judge OVER 1.5 Total Bases (-120)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Corbin Burnes UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (-105)

Baltimore Orioles ace Corbin Burnes has been great this season – posting a 2.26 ERA in 13 starts – but I’m fading his strikeout prop against the Tampa Bay Rays on Monday.

In his 13 starts, Burnes has cleared 6.5 strikeouts just two times, falling short of six strikeouts in six starts as well. That gives us a lot of cushion against a Tampa Bay team that does strikeout a lot (over nine times per game) in 2024. 

Burnes cleared this prop on Opening Day, but he’s done so just one time since then, ranking in the 65th percentile in strikeout percentage. I can’t get behind him picking up seven punchouts or more given how little he’s done that in 2024. 

Dylan Cease UNDER 4.5 Hits Allowed (-150)

Cease has a 3.51 ERA and 2.98 Fielding Independent Pitching this season, but his most impressive stat is his 0.96 WHIP. 

There have been just five games in Cease’s 13 starts where he’s allowed more than 4.5 hits this season, and now he takes on an Oakland offense that ranks 27th in the league in hits and 29th in batting average so far this season. 

Cease did have a rough end of the month of May when it comes to his hits allowed, but he bounced back by giving up just four in his first start in June. Back him against one of the league’s worst offenses on Monday. 

Aaron Judge OVER 1.5 Total Bases (-120)

Nobody – and I mean nobody – in baseball has been as hot as Aaron Judge over the last month. 

Judge now leads Major League Baseball in homers (24) extra base hits, OPS, OPS+, OBP, slugging percentage, doubles and walks in 2024. 

Not only that, but he’s cleared 1.5 total bases in nine of his last 10 games heading into Monday’s matchup against Seth Lugo.

The Royals righty has been great this season, but he’s given up at least six hits in three straight starts, making him vulnerable to a red hot hitter like Judge. Since the Yankees star hits so many extra base hits, he’s a perfect bet at 1.5 total bases since it doesn’t take a multi-hit game – a decent amount of the time – for him to clear this number. 

I’ll keep backing him during this hot streak.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's betting record here You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.