Painting Corners: Best MLB Prop Bets Today (Fade Paul Skenes on Saturday vs. Braves?)

Reed Wallach | Jun 29, 2024

Jun 23, 2024; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Paul Skenes (30) delivers a pitch against the Tampa Bay Rays during the first inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports / Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Saturday’s MLB action features a handful of high level pitchers from rookies to veterans, and we are targeting the player prop market for a handful of them. 

Paul Skeens has quickly emerged as the NL Rookie of the Year front runner. The No. 1 overall pick will look to build on his case against the Braves on the road, but can you trust him? 

Find out how I’m attacking the player prop market for pitchers on Saturday’s slate. 

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook 

Best MLB Prop Bets for Saturday, June 29th

• Aaron Nola Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-146)
• Paul Skenes Under 17.5 Outs (-102)
• Nestor Cortes Over 17.5 Outs (-146)

Aaron Nola Under 6.5 Strikeouts

Nola has failed to go over this mark in 11 of 16 starts this season, and despite being a poor offense, the Marlins don’t strikeout all that much. 

Miami has struckout the 10th fewest times this season, and Nola is posting his lowest whiff rate of his career. 

While he may pitch a lot, it may not come with a ton of K’s. 

Paul Skenes Under 17.5 Outs

Skeens has gone over this mark in six of his first eight big league starts, but I’m willing to wager that he has a setback of sorts on Saturday in the hitter friendly Truist Park. 

The Braves thrive at Truist Park, eighth in home OPS as the ball flies through wind tunnels. While Skeens is a strikeout artist, he also has been prone to hard contact that can be exaggerated in this particular stadium. 

The 2023 No. 1 overall pick is striking out 33% of the batters he has faced thus far, but is also in the 50th percentile in terms of hard contact and 37th percentile in terms of average exit velocity. The Braves are about league average in terms of strikeout rate, so with some plate discipline can come some hitter friendly conditions. 

I believe Skenes will be tested enough to warrant betting the under on his outs prop. 

Nestor Cortes Over 17.5 Outs

Cortes has gone over his mark in half of his starts this season, but there is good reason to believe that he can go deeper into this game given the Blue Jays pronounced struggles against lefty pitchers. 

Toronto is 24th in OPS against southpaws as the team can’t string together quality at bats. 

Why do I believe this is the best path to bet on a strong Cortes outing? The Blue Jays have struckout the fewest times against lefty pitchers, which means the team is making weak contact and easy outs so Cortes can keep his pitch count down. 

Bank on a quality start from the southpaw. 

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