Painting Corners: Best MLB Prop Bets Today (Juan Soto, Vlad Guerrero, Jr. and Walker Buehler)

Jennifer Piacenti | Aug 28, 2024

Aug 26, 2024; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (27) is congratulated after scoring against the Boston Red Sox in the eighth inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports / David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

There are so many player props I love tonight, it was hard to narrow it down to just a few!

I've combed through the data and chosen these four player props in plus money. Target some of them or target all of them. By my estimation, they all present value tonight.

In general, weather favors bats tonight in the Dodgers/Orioles, Marlins/Rockies, A's/Reds and Yankees/Nationals games tonight.

Now, let's grab some player props! All odds according to DraftKings.

MLB Player Props to Target

• Walker Buehler over 5.5 hits allowed (+115)
• Walker Buehler under 3.5 K (+125)
• Juan Soto over 1.5 bases (+120)
• Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. over 2.5 hits+runs+RBI (+110)

Buehler over 5.5 hits allowed (+115)
Under 3.5 K (+125)

We are going to target two plus-money props for Buehler tonight. 

Not only has Buehler allowed 6+ hits in six of his last seven starts, he has poor splits vs. lefties, which will no doubt bite him vs. the lefty-dominant Orioles lineup. Lefties are batting .372 vs. Buehler this season, and though he has had some extra rest - this will be his first start since August 20th his ERA is 6.01 for the season, and it’s 7.36 in the seven-and-one-third innings he has pitched since the All-Star Break (two starts).   Still, I don’t expect him to get pulled before Baltimore gets a chance to get in their knocks. 

Buehler is not a high-K pitcher and has not struck out more than three batters in his last five starts. The Orioles have a 20.9% K-rate vs. righties this season—the ninth-best mark in the league—while Buehler strikes batters out at a rate of just 7.11 per nine innings. 

I also like a lot of Baltimore bats tonight, too. 

Juan Soto over 1.5 total bases (+120)

Any time we can get a stud like Soto for plus money, we have to take it.  

Soto is only hitting .231 vs. left-handed pitching since the All-Star Break, but 10 of those hits have been extra-base hits, and seven have been home runs.   Tonight’s weather forecast favors baseballs carrying- it will be hot with light winds blowing out. Even though Gore has not allowed many home runs this season, this is a good spot for Soto and the Yankees. For the season, Soto is hitting .293 vs. southpaws and .329 when on the road vs. left-handed pitching. 

Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. over 2.5 hits+runs+RBI (+110)

Vlad has arguably been the hottest hitter out of the All-Star Break. He’s hitting .419 since the All-Star Break, including 13 home runs and 30 extra-base hits.   Brayan Bello has allowed 1.33 home runs per nine innings this season, and Vlad should have no trouble taking advantage of the pitcher who has a 5.54 ERA when pitching at home this season.  Even if he can’t get to Bello, the Red Sox bullpen remains a mess with a 5.97 ERA in August, allowing hitters an MLB-worst .302 batting average. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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