Painting Corners: Best MLB Prop Bets Today (Kyle Schwarber and Andrew Heaney in plus-money)

Jennifer Piacenti | Jul 12, 2024

Jun 14, 2024; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Philadelphia Phillies designated hitter Kyle Schwarber (12) stands on the field before a first inning at-bat against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports / Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Let’s head into the weekend with a couple of attractive plus-money player props from DraftKings Sportsbook. 

Best MLB Prop Bets Today

• Andrew Heaney under 4.5 K (+120) 
• Kyle Schwarber over 1.5 total bases (+105)

Andrew Heaney under 4.5 K (+120) 

This will be the third time Andrew Heaney has seen the Astros this season. He struck out two in his first meeting and just one in his second and in those games, the Astros were still playing Jose Abreu. 

Yes, Heaney has had two good starts in a row, but Houston is especially dominant vs. left-handed pitching.  As a team, the Astros have the league’s lowest K-rate vs. southpaws at just 17%. Specifically, both Altuve and Alvarez have great career numbers vs. Heaney.  In 41 career at-bats, Altuve is hitting .317 with only five strikeouts vs. Heaney.  In 18 career at-bats, Alvarez is hitting .444 with a home run,  two extra-base hits, and four strikeouts.   Alvarez is expected to be back tonight. 

Heaney’s 44.7% fly ball rate and bottom 32nd percentile hard-hit rate allowed could get him into trouble quickly vs. a Houston team hitting well right now.   Even though Heaney is striking batters out at a rate of more than nine per nine this season, I’ll take the chance he doesn’t make it far enough into this game to get to five. 

Kyle Schwarber over 1.5 total bases (+105)

Schwarber has been punishing lefties this season with a .338 batting average and eight home runs. I’ll take plus money for him to tally a couple vs. Hogan Harris whose xERA is 5.57 according to statcast and whose hard-hit rate is on the bottom 33% of the league.  Bryce Harper and Alec Bohm also are in a good spot tonight at home. 

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