Painting Corners: Best MLB Prop Bets Today (Nick Pivetta Set for Quality Start)

Reed Wallach | Jul 4, 2024

Jun 28, 2024; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Nick Pivetta (37) pitches against the San Diego Padres during the first inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports / Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports

With a 15 game slate on Independence Day, let’s hit the prop bet market. 

There’s plenty of games to choose from, but I’m eyeing three pitcher props that have caught my eye, namely the outs prop for Red Sox starter Nick Pivetta. Pivetta has been a victim of poor variance, but a matchup against the Marlins can cure all. 

Here’s three player props I’m eyeing on the Fourth of July. 

Best MLB Prop Bets for Thursday, July 4th 

• Nick Pivetta Over 16.5 Outs (-130)
• Kenta Maeda Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+116)
• Charlie Morton Under 17.5 Outs (-138)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook 

Nick Pivetta Over 16.5 Outs (-130)

Pivetta has been volatile this season, but his underlying metrics indicate he has been unfortunate when the ball has been put in play. He has a 4.52 ERA with a 3.92 xERA with a 75th percentile walk rate, per MLBStatcast.

The righty will face a limited Marlins lineup that is last in OPS this season, meaning he should have little issue rolling through this lackluster set of hitters. 

He has only gone over in this in five of 12 starts this season, but given the matchup, I believe this calls for an over bet as Pivetta should face little resistance. 

Kenta Maeda Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+116)

Maeda’s strikeout prowess has diminished this season. He ranks in the third percentile in terms of pitching run value and is striking out a career lowe 17% of batters while posting a 5.76 ERA. 

It won’t get any better for the veteran Tigers starter against a Twins team that strikes out at a bottom third rate and is second in OPS over the last 30 days. With power in the lineup, Minnesota can chase Maeda from this game rather quickly. 

I’m interested in the plus money price tag with some outlier downside risk for Maeda, who can be pulled quickly from this game. For what it’s worth, he has only pitched into the sixth inning four times in 13 starts (one he left after two pitches), and he has tossed four or more strikeouts in seven of them. 

However, given this matchup, I’ll jump on the plus money price tag. 

Charlie Morton Under 17.5 Outs (-138)

This is a fairly average outcome for Morton, who has gone under this mark in eight of 15 starts, but I believe it’s worthwhile to take the under given the Giants ability to work pitch counts and for Morton’s shaky control. 

San Francisco is a league average strikeout team, but the team doesn’t chase much, a top 10 team in chase percentage. 

Further, Morton is walking batters at a 10.1% clip, 24th percentile in the big leagues. If the Giants are able to take pitches around Morton’s breaking ball pitch, this can be a quicker than expected outing for the 40-year-old. 

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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