Painting Corners: Best MLB Prop Bets Today (Skenes K prop, Schwarber and Harper RBIs tonight)

Best Player Props for Friday

Aug 10, 2024; Los Angeles, California, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Paul Skenes (30) pitches during the fifth inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kiyoshi Mio-USA TODAY Sports / Kiyoshi Mio-USA TODAY Sports

We cashed both of our player props yesterday in plus money!  Let’s see if we can do it again today.

I am taking some bolder options for today’s picks- especially in the Nationals/Phillies game. If you don’t like to take big swings, consider other hitting props for Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper and Alec Bohm. The Phillies are in a good spot at home tonight. 

Best MLB Player Props for Friday, August 16th

• Paul Skenes OVER 8.5 K (+130)
• Kyle Schwarbers OVER 1.5 Bases (+100)
• Kyle Schwarber RBI (+105)
• Bryce Harper RBI (+105)

Paul Skenes OVER 8.5 K (+130)

It’s been a while since we have bet on Paul Skenes. Let’s have some fun! 

Skenes has only gotten to nine or more strikeouts in four out of 15 games this season, but this is the perfect spot for him to do it again tonight.  The Mariners own the league’s highest K-rate at a whopping 30%.  Skenes, on the other hand, is striking batters out at a rate of more 32% and 11.25 per nine innings.  

With the Mariners averaging just 3.98 runs per game this season, Skenes should be able to work deep enough into this game to cash this for us. In what should be a low-scoring contest, the Pirates will want to keep their ace on the mound as long as possible. This will be the first time Mariners hitters have seen Skenes, and the pitcher should have the advantage. 

Kyle Schwarber OVER 1.5 bases (+100)
Kyle Schwarber RBI (+105)

Not only does Schwarber have steep lefty/righty splits (.333 BA vs. left/.205 vs. right) he has excellent career numbers vs. Patrick Corbin.   Schwarber is hitting .333 with two home runs and eight RBI in 18 career at-bats vs. Corbin. Schwarber is hitting .354 with seven home runs at home vs. lefties this season. 

Lefty Corbin is allowing 1.31 home runs per nine innings this season (16th-most in MLB), and his hard-hit rate, xERA, xSLG are all in the bottom 3% of the league.

Bryce Harper RBI (+105)

Harper is in a good spot tonight again.  

A lot of things have to go right for an RBI prop to hit, but Patrick Corbin should help us with that. Corbin’s ERA this season is 6.68 when away and his ERA since the All Star Break is 7.62. He allowed a .342 batting average and four earned runs in his only start vs. Philadelphia this season.

Harper has 26 RBI vs. left-handed pitching this season (8th in MLB) and he’s hitting .310 with 21 extra-base hits.  I’m willing to bet Schwarber and Turner can get on board to set Harper up tonight. 

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