Painting Corners: Best MLB Prop Bets Today (Trust Bryce Miller, Tanner Houck Prop for Sunday Night)

Breaking down the best prop bets for the MLB action on Sunday, July 28.

Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Bryce Miller. / Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports

There are plenty of ways – and games – to bet on Sunday when it comes to Major League Baseball, but I’m focusing on the prop market for today’s edition of Painting Corners. 

Pitcher props are usually my favorite way to attack the prop market, and there are a couple of starters to fade – and one to trust – on July 28. 

We’ll start with a pair of props where we have to lay a little juice, but I also have a plus-money pick for Seattle Mariners righty Bryce Miller against the Chicago White Sox. Let’s break all of these plays down!

Best MLB Prop Bets Today for Sunday, July 28

• Jordan Hicks OVER 1.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-140)
• Tanner Houck OVER 1.5 Walks Allowed (-210)
• Bryce Miller UNDER 1.5 Earned Runs Allowed (+125)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Jordan Hicks OVER 1.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-140)

San Francisco Giants starter Jordan Hicks has a favorable matchup against a weak Colorado Rockies team, but I can’t get behind him allowing one or fewer runs in this outing. 

A converted reliever, Hicks has allowed three or more earned runs in each of his last five starts, pushing his ERA from 2.82 to 4.01. 

Hicks has allowed three and one runs in his two starts against Colorado, and while he hasn’t been pitching deep into games, a big reason why is that he’s been hit hard as of late. 

I’ll take the OVER here at Oracle Park. 

Tanner Houck OVER 1.5 Walks Allowed (-210)

An All-Star this season, Tanner Houck has been great for the Boston Red Sox, posting a 2.71 ERA. 

However, he’s taken a step back control-wise this month, walking four, three, and three batters in three starts. The four walks came against the New York Yankees – his opponent tonight – and I’m worried he could be in for more of the same.

While Houck only has 29 walks in 123.0 innings, he’s facing a Yankees team that leads Major League Baseball with 425 walks. 

An outing with two walks – or more – is certainly on the table for Houck tonight. 

Bryce Miller UNDER 1.5 Earned Runs Allowed (+125)

Seattle Mariners righty Bryce Miller dominated the Chicago White Sox earlier this season, allowing just two hits and no runs in seven innings of work, and I expect him to do that again on Sunday. 

Miller has not allowed a run over his last two starts, and he’s getting a crack at an offense that ranks dead last in OPS, 29th in hits, and dead last in runs so far in 2024. 

Miller’s ERA has dropped from 3.88 to 3.41 this month, and he’s also done a solid job limiting baserunners as of late (eight hits, and zero walks in his last two outings). 

I’ll take a shot on Miller to have a shutdown outing at plus money.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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