Painting Corners: Best MLB Prop Bets Today (Tyler Fitzgerald stays hot, Alex Bregman and Yordan Alvarez too)

Jennifer Piacenti | Aug 5, 2024

Aug 2, 2024; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; San Francisco Giants shortstop Tyler Fitzgerald (49) reacts after hitting a solo home run in the seventh inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports / Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

It was a jam-packed weekend of baseball, and today's slate is a little lighter with just nine games on the schedule.  However, there are still plenty of ways to get in on the action!

I've found a few player props I like in plus money. Today, we are going to target hitters facing Patrick Corbin and Andrew Heaney, a pair of lefties who are in way over their respective heads on Monday. Let's get to it!

All odds are according to DraftKings. 

Best MLB Prop Bets for Monday, August 5th

• Tyler Fitzgerald over hits + runs + RBI (+120)
• Michael Conforto to score a run (+115) 
• Alex Bregman over 1.5 total bases (+105)
• Yordan Alvarez over 1.5 total bases (+100)

Tyler Fitzgerald OVER Hits + Runs + RBI (+120)

Fitzgerald has been scorching hot coming out of the All-Star Break. He's hit .351 in just 15 games and exceeded this prop in 10 of those 15 contests. He's also had a league-leading nine home runs, 14 runs scored, and 16 RBI.

Today, he will face Patrick Corbin at Nationals Stadium.  Corbin has an ERA of 7.88 since the All-Star Break and an xERA of 5.84 for the season. His max exit velocity allowed is in the bottom 6% of the league, as are his xBA, xSLG, and hard-hit rate.   Corbin is better at home than away, but with the warm weather in D.C. tonight, his tendency to issue free passes (2.90 walks per nine) and his 12.8% HR/FB ratio could get him into trouble with a hitter like Fitzgerald. 

Michael Conforto to Score a Run (+115) 

Conforto has been underwhelming this season, but he has two doubles and a home run in his last two games played.  He's also hitting .294 vs. left-handed pitchers this season as opposed to just .211 vs. righties.  Finally, he has impressive career numbers vs. Corbin. In 34 career at-bats vs. the southpaw, Conforto is hitting .353 with seven extra-base hits,  five home runs, and an OPS of 1.224.  Let's bet on Conforto being on board for Fitzgerald. 

Alex Bregman OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+105)

Ordinarily, we wouldn't bet on Bregman when facing a lefty, but Andrew Heaney is the exception.    Bregman is hitting .325 lifetime vs. Heaney, and his 13 hits vs. the southpaw are the most he has vs. any single pitcher in his career.  Bregman bats second in the order, so consider his run prop, which pays +100, too. 

Yordan Alvarez OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+100)

Any time we can get the 'Big Man' in plus money for a bases prop vs. a lefty, we take it. 

Not only is Alvarez crushing lefties this season, hitting .367 vs. .265 when facing righties, but he's also been better when away, specifically at Globe Life Park, where he is hitting  .400 with two home runs in four games this season. Add to that a .500 career batting average vs. Corbin (20 plate appearances) and the fact that he exceeded this prop in all three games vs. Heaney this season, and I'm sold. 

---

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.