Patrick Mahomes NFL MVP Odds Are Ridiculous Despite Chiefs' Impressive Record

Iain MacMillan | 23 Hours Ago

Oct 20, 2024; Santa Clara, California, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) reacts after the Chiefs scored a touchdown against the San Francisco 49ers in the fourth quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-Imagn Images / Cary Edmondson-Imagn Images

We're through seven weeks of the NFL season and the preseason favorite to be named MVP, Patrick Mahomes, remains the betting favorite.

The Chiefs are a perfect 6-0 and are the final undefeated team left in the league, which means Mahomes is the obvious choice for MVP, right? Not necessarily. Let's take a look at the latest odds to win the award and then we'll dive into this a little bit further.

NFL MVP Odds

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

• Patrick Mahomes +370
• Lamar Jackson +500
• Josh Allen +500
• Jared Goff +650
• C.J. Stroud +1100
• Jordan Love +1300
• Joe Burrow +1300
• Jayden Daniels +1800
• Sam Darnold +2000
• Jalen Hurts +2500
• Brock Purdy +2500
• Baker Mayfield +2500

Is Patrick Mahomes Deserving of Being NFL MVP Favorite?

Mahomes is set as the +370 favorite to be named NFL MVP, an implied probability of 21.28%. Here is where he ranks in a few key metrics:

• Pass Yards: 1,389 (16th)
• Passing TDs: 6 (Tied for 21st)
• Interceptions: 8 (Tied for 1st)

Mahomes' statistics have been average at best yet this season, yet sportsbooks are still setting him as the betting favorite to win MVP. This is not something I've seen in my life as an NFL fan and sports bettor. Mahomes is 11th in QBR behind the likes of Trevor Lawrence, Baker Mayfield, Geno Smith, and Kyler Murray.

Not only has he not been the best quarterback this season, but he's not even been a top 10 quarterback this season. The only real argument that can be made for him is that he continues to find ways to win games, which has been his biggest strength throughout his career.

The reason for Mahomes still being favored is likely due to the liability sportsbooks have on the amount of bets they've taken on him to win the award for the third time in his career. We also haven't seen another quarterback take hold of the MVP conversation.

Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Jared Goff, and C.J. Stroud have all look exceptional at times this year, but have also had some off performances. Joe Burrow has been great but his team has a losing record and Jayden Daniels has been ultra-impressive but a Week 7 injury leads to questions surrounding his health moving forward.

With all of that being said, it's only a matter of time for someone else to take over the top spot on the odds list to win the award, unless Mahomes gets in postseason form sooner rather than later.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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