Patrick Mahomes Remains Heavily Favored in NFL MVP Odds Despite Underwhelming Start

Patrick Mahomes isn't putting up MVP numbers, but he remains favored to win the award in the latest betting odds.

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs improved to 5-0 in the 2024 season on Monday night, taking down the New Orleans Saints in Kansas City. 

The two-time defending Super Bowl champions are one of just two undefeated teams (the Minnesota Vikings are the other) heading into their bye week in Week 6. 

Mahomes, a two-time league MVP, is heavily favored to win the award for a third time this season, sitting at +330 in the latest odds at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Josh Allen, who struggled mightily in Week 5 in a loss to the Houston Texans, is tied with Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson as the next closest player to Mahomes at +600. 

While it makes sense that Mahomes is leading the MVP race because of Kansas City’s record – and likely path to the No. 1 seed in the AFC – the star quarterback hasn’t exactly put up MVP numbers so far this season.

Now, with Rashee Rice likely done for the year and Isiah Pacheco on injured reserve, bettors may want to consider staying away from the Chiefs quarterback at this price – even with the team still winning. 

Latest Odds to Win NFL MVP

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Patrick Mahomes: +330
• Josh Allen: +600
• Lamar Jackson: +600
• CJ Stroud: +750
• Jayden Daniels: +1000
• Sam Darnold: +1300
• Joe Burrow: +1800
• Jared Goff: +2000

Patrick Mahomes Isn’t Putting Up MVP Numbers

We’ve come accustomed to Mahomes doing some pretty crazy things on the football field and them being taken as normal – for him – but I really don’t see why he’s this far ahead in the MVP odds at this point in the season. 

Here’s a look at his numbers compared to some of the other top candidates to win MVP this season:

Player	Completion Percentage	Passing Yards	Passing Touchdowns	Interceptions	QBR	Rushing Yards	Rushing Touchdowns	Record
Patrick Mahomes	69.4	1,235	6	6	55.8	83	0	5-0
Josh Allen	60.3	945	8	0	77.6	160	2	3-2
Lamar Jackson	65.3	1,206	9	1	67.1	363	2	3-2
CJ Stroud	68.9	1,385	7	3	64.4	68	0	4-1
Jayden Daniels	77.1	1,135	4	2	73.2	300	4	4-1
Sam Darnold	63.5	1,111	11	4	58.7	61	0	5-0
Joe Burrow	72.3	1,370	12	2	73.6	39	0	1-4
Jared Goff	71.0	1,015	5	4	44.8	16	0	3-1

When you compare Mahomes to the other quarterbacks in the top eight in the latest MVP odds, the numbers are stunning.

Mahomes leads the NFL in interceptions this season with six, and he has a lower QBR than every other quarterback in the top eight in the odds besides Jared Goff (eighth). He's only thrown six touchdowns -- less than everyone but Goff and Jayden Daniels -- and he doesn't lead the league in completion percentage, passing yards or passing touchdowns.

The three-time Super Bowl champion is great, but this is not an MVP season -- even with the Chiefs sitting at 5-0.

Yes, there's a chance that Mahomes turns things around statically, but are we buying that with Rice and Pacheco on the sidelines? I'm not so sure.

The NFL MVP race is far from decided, but Mahomes should not be this far ahead through Week 5. I'd avoid betting on him until his numbers come somewhere in the ballpark of some of the other top candidates.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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