Patriots vs. 49ers Final Score Prediction for NFL Week 4 (Can San Francisco Bounce Back with Big Win?)

Iain MacMillan | Sep 27, 2024

Sep 22, 2024; Inglewood, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Jauan Jennings (15) celebrates with wide receiver Ronnie Bell (10) after scoring a touchdown in the second half against the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

The San Francisco 49ers have got off to a surprising 1-2 start to their 2024 campaign and all of a sudden find themselves in an almost "must-win" game against the New England Patriots in Week 4.

The 49ers are the biggest favorites of the week, but that has been a death sentence for teams each of the first three weeks. Will they be able to end the trend of the biggest faves getting upset? Let's take a look at the latest odds and then I'll break down my final score prediction.

Patriots vs. 49ers Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

• Patriots +10.5 (-110)
• 49ers -10.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Patriots: +430
• 49ers: -590

Total

• 40.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

The odds have moved in favor of the 49ers throughout the week. It began at 49ers -10, but with Brock Purdy being cleared and both George Kittle and Trent Williams getting a chance to play on Sunday, the line has moved half a point in favor of the 49ers. They're now 10.5-point favoirtes and their implied probability to win has improved from 83.87% to 85.51%.

The total has also increased by one point from 39.5 to 40.5.

Patriots vs. 49ers Final Score Prediction

As I broke down in this week's edition of the "Road to 272 Bets", I think the 49ers are going to win this game but I'm not ready to lay 10.5 points on them:

It's not just injuries that make me lean toward taking the Patriots with the points. The San Francisco defense has been bad this season, there's no other way to describe it. They're allowing 6.1 yards per play through the first three weeks, the third-worst mark in the NFL. They're also 30th in opponent third down conversation percentage and 31st in red zone defense. This unit was supposed to be better under Nick Sorensen, but so far they've been worse than in 2023.

We may need to stop evaluating this 49ers team like they're the same one that dominated the NFC en route to the Super Bowl last year.

With that defense potentially being an issue for the 49ers, it makes sense that I'm not only taking the points with the Patriots, but I like the total going OVER in this matchup as well. It could surprise some people with how high-scoring this affair could get.

Final score prediction: 49ers 27, Patriots 20

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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