Patriots vs. 49ers Prediction, Odds, Spread, Injuries, Trends for NFL Week 4 (Take the Points?)

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the New England Patriots-San Francisco 49ers matchup in NFL Week 4.

New England Patriots quarterback Jacoby Brissett. / David Butler II-Imagn Images

Who would’ve thought that the New England Patriots and San Francisco 49ers would enter their Week 4 matchup this season with the same record?

Injuries and back-to-back poor showings have led to the 49ers falling to 1-2, but they’ll be in a great spot right the ship at 10-point favorites against the Patriots in Week 4.

New England scored just three points in a loss to the New York Jets on Thursday Night Football in Week 3, but it had played well up until that, upsetting the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 1 and taking the 3-0 Seattle Seahawks to overtime in Week 2. 

Underdogs have dominated so far this season, with dogs of 5.5 or more points going an insane 14-3 against the spread. 

Should we expect more of the same in Week 4? 

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, betting trends, players to watch and my best bet for this matchup. 

Patriots vs. 49ers Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Patriots +10 (-105)
• 49ers -10 (-115)

Moneyline

• Patriots: +390
• 49ers: -520

Total

• 39.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Patriots vs. 49ers How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, Sept. 29
• Time: 4:05 p.m. EST
• Venue: Levi’s Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): FOX
• Patriots record: 1-2
• 49ers record 1-2

Patriots vs. 49ers Betting Trends

• The Patriots are 1-1-1 against the spread this season.
• The 49ers are 1-2 against the spread this season.
• San Francisco is 1-0 against the spread at home this season.
• New England is 1-1 against the spread on the road this season.
• The OVER is 2-1 in the 49ers’ game this season.
• The UNDER is 1-2 in the Patriots game this season.
• Underdogs of 5.5 points or more are 14-3 ATS this season. 
• Under head coach Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers are just 21-23-1 against the spread as home favorites.

Patriots vs. 49ers Injury Reports

Patriots Injury Report

• Kendrick Bourne – out
• Sidy Sow – questionable
• Michael Jordan – questionable
• Vederian Lowe – questionable
• Ja'Whaun Bentley – doubtful 

49ers Injury Report

• Christian McCaffrey – out
• Deebo Samuel – doubtful
• George Kittle – questionable
• Dre Greenlaw – out
• Javon Hargrave – out
• Brock Purdy – questionable
• Dee Winters – questionable

Patriots vs. 49ers Key Players to Watch

New England Patriots

Rhamondre Stevenson: After two huge games to open the season, Stevenson lost a fumble and recorded just 23 rushing yards on six carries in Week 3. The Patriots need to get him back on track if they want this offense to compete in 2024. 

San Francisco 49ers

Jauan Jennings: With Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle out in Week 3, Jennings erupted for 11 catches, 175 yards and three scores for San Francisco. Brandon Aiyuk may be the No. 1 receiver in this offense until Samuel returns, but Jennings is a force to be reckoned with. 

Patriots vs. 49ers Prediction and Pick

The biggest underdog on the slate in each of the first three weeks of the NFL season has won outright… Can the Patriots make it four?

While I’m not that bold, I do think that New England can cover against the injury-riddled 49ers in Week 4. 

San Francisco blew a lead to the Los Angeles Rams in Week 3 on the road, and it is now just 1-2 on the season after a disappointing Week 2 showing against Minnesota. 

Under head coach Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers are just 21-23-1 against the spread as home favorites, winning those games by an average margin of 7.7 points per game.

While New England looked awful in Week 3 on Thursday Night Football, it is still 1-1-1 against the spread on the season and ranks in the middle of the pack in yards per play allowed on defense. 

While I’m not totally sold on the Patriots offense doing enough to cover in this game, I can’t lay 10 points with the 49ers given all the important pieces – on both sides of the ball – that they have banged up. 

Pick: Patriots +10 (-105)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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