Patriots vs. Bills Best NFL Prop Bets and Anytime Touchdown Scorer Picks for NFL Week 16 (How to bet on Josh Allen)

Reed Wallach | 10 Hours Ago

Bills quartterback Josh Allen tries to ward off Arizona's Roy Lopez as he runs with the ball during first half action at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park on Sept. 8, 2024. Lopez ended up tackling him causing Allen to fumble the ball with Arizona recovering it. / Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Josh Allen’s MVP season continues with a division game against the Patriots, who have a bright future with Drake Maye under center, but not the roster to keep up with the likes of the Bills. 

Maye has drawn comparisons to Allen with each posting a ton of arm talent and a fantastic ability to move around the pocket and use their legs to make plays. With that in mind, let’s focus on the same player prop for each talented quarterback to highlight our three player props for this AFC East matchup in Week 16.

Best NFL Prop Bets Anytime Touchdown Picks for Patriots vs. Bills 

• Drake Maye OVER 28.5 Rushing Yards (-133)
• Josh Allen OVER 35.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
• Dalton Kincaid Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+240)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Drake Maye OVER 28.5 Rushing Yards

Maye is a tough player to bring down, and he hasn't been shy to use his legs to pick up yards behind a patchwork offensive line. 

Maye has gone over this total in only four of his 10 starts, but given that the Patriots are two touchdown underdogs, I believe we see Maye forced to dropback at a higher than expected rate and that he will take off more often in the negative game script. 

Maye has at least three carries in all but one start this season, and if he can skew a bit higher we can see him rip off a handful of chunk gains and get over this pedestrian total in the first meeting against the Bills this season.

Josh Allen OVER 35.5 Rushing Yards

Allen is playing at an incredibly high level, and his legs have continued to play a big factor in the Bills offense. Allen is always a threat to extend the play with his legs, and once he turns up field, it’s really tough to slow him down. 

The MVP front runner is averaging just about what this prop implies on the ground this season, and I believe that we see him get to his quota as he continues to build up his case for his first ever Most Valuable Player nod. 

Allen has gone over this mark in half the games this season, including three of the last four, so I’ll continue to buy in on him as a rusher. 

Dalton Kincaid Anytime Touchdown Scorer

Kincaid returned from injury to garner seven targets in the Bills resounding win against the Lions. 

In Week 16, the team gets a far better matchup against the Patriots, who are bottom 10 in targets allowed to tight ends and touchdowns allowed to the position. 

Kincaid is one of the best young pass catching tight ends in the sport and he doesn’t appear to be limited at all from his knee injury that cost him the past few weeks of action.

Despite missing six games this season, Kincaid is tied for second in red zone targets amongst wide receivers and tight ends, so I believe he can outperform this price tag. 

More NFL Stories

manual

---

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.