Patriots vs. Dolphins Prediction, Odds, Spread, Injuries, Trends for NFL Week 12

Iain MacMillan | 2 Hours Ago

The Dolphins are touchdown favorites to complete the season sweep of the Patriots. / Paul Rutherford-Imagn Images

The Miami Dolphins took down the New England Patriots in Week 5, beating them in a defensive battle by a score of 15-10. The two teams will rematch in Week 12, but both offenses will look completely different. Tua Tagovailoa and Drake Maye will thankfully face each other instead of the ugly Tyler Huntley vs. Jacoby Brissett game we got earlier in the season.

The Patriots season is all but over, but the Dolphins still have an outside shot at the playoffs. At 4-6, they can get back in the mix with another couple of wins. They've won their last two ahead of Sunday's AFC East showdown.

Dolphins vs. Patriots Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

Spread

• Patriots +7 (-110)
• Dolphins -7 (-110)

Moneyline

• Patriots +280
• Dolphins -350

Total

• OVER 46 (-110)
• UNDER 46 (-110)

Patriots vs. Dolphins How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, November 24
• Game Time: 1:00 pm et
• Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
• How to Watch: CBS
• Patriots Record: 3-8
• Dolphins Record: 4-6

Patriots vs. Dolphins Betting Trends

• Patriots are 3-6 ATS in their last nine games
• Dolphins are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games vs. Patriots
• Patriots are 6-12 ATS in their last 18 games vs. AFC East opponents
• Dolphins are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games
• The UNDER is 10-5 in the Dolphins' last 15 games
• Dolphins are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games

Patriots vs. Dolphins Injury Reports

Patriots Injury Report

• Deatrich Wise Jr., DE - Questionable
• Jaquelin Roy, DT - Questionable
• Marte Mapu, S - Questionable
• Curtis Jacobs, LB - Questionable

Dolphins Injury Report

• Alec Ingold, FB - Questionable
• Kendall Fuller, CB - Questionable
• Isaiah Wynn, OT - PUP-R

Patriots vs. Dolphins Key Players to Watch

New England Patriots

Drake Maye: The Patriots rookie quarterback has been fantastic in his starts this season. he has a quarterback rating of 87.5, averaging 176.6 passing yards per game while completing 66.8% of passes. Remember, he has almost no weapons or offensive line to support him, making his performance more impressive than his stat line may show.

Miami Dolphins

De'Von Achane: Not only are the Dolphins using De'Von Achane as their primary runner of the football, but he's also leading the team in receptions with 46, that's two more receptions than his teammate Tyreek Hill. He has played a huge role in their offensive success the past few weeks.

Patriots vs. Dolphins Prediction and Pick

In this week's edition of the "Road to 272 Bets", I broke down why I'm targeting the total in this game instead of a side:

I think the spread is set at the correct number, so I'm going to look at betting on the total instead and I'll take the OVER 46.

The Dolphins offense has been one of the best in the NFL since Tua Tagovailoa's return four weeks ago, ranking third in the NFL in both EPA and success rate in that time frame. They have one of the most explosive and dynamic offenses in the league when Tua is healthy and the Patriots' defense, which ranks 28th in opponent EPA, doesn't lead me to believe we'll see Miami slowing down offensively this Sunday.

The Patriots offense may not be on the level of the Dolphins', but they've looked the best they have all season the past few weeks and Drake Maye has been one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL this season. They have averaged 20.75 points per game over the last four weeks while playing against solid defenses in the Jets, Titans, Bears, and Rams. Another performance like that will be enough to contribute to this total going OVER.

Pick: OVER 46 (-110)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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