Paul Skenes Cy Young Odds Take Massive Leap After 11-Strikeout Performance

Iain MacMillan | Jul 11, 2024

Jul 5, 2024; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Paul Skenes (30) delivers a pitch against the New York Mets during the first inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports / Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Another start, another lights out performance for the Pittsburgh Pirates' rookie arm, Paul Skenes.

The LSU product threw 7.0 scoreless innings, allowing no hits and just one walk while racking up 11 strikeouts. The start improves his sparkling ERA even further to an eye-popping 1.90.

Paul Skenes' final first-half numbers, after his seven-inning, no-hit, 11-strikeout gem today:

66.1 innings
48 hits
13 walks
89 strikeouts
7 home runs
1.90 ERA
Opponent slash: .202/.251/.319
Average fastball velocity: 99.1 mph

The best pitcher in MLB since his debut May 11.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) July 11, 2024

It has only taken 11 starts in his MLB career to take over as the overwhelming -550 favorite (84.62% implied probability) to win the National League Rookie of the Year award. Not only that, but he's quickly climbing up the list of odds to win the National League Cy Young as well.

NL Cy Young Odds

The odds listed below are via FanDuel Sportsbook

• Zack Wheeler +135
• Chris Sale +135
• Paul Skenes +1200
• Ranger Suarez +1400
• Logan Webb +2200
• Reynaldo Lopez +2300
• Tyler Glasnow +2800
• Max Fried +4200

Before Thursday's start, Skenes' Cy Young odds were set at +2000. After his impressive outing today, his odds skyrocketed up to +1200. If you translate those odds to implied probability, his chances of winning the Cy Young in his rookie year improved from 4.76% to 7.69%.

He's now third on the odds list to win the award behind only the two co-favorites, Zack Wheeler and Chris Sale.

If you need further proof of just how impressive the start of his rookie campaign has been, here are a couple of examples of some mind-blowing stats of his thus far:

Paul Skenes joins Nolan Ryan as the only pitchers ever with *multiple* starts of 6+ IP, 0 H and 11+ K in the same season.

Skenes in 2024.

Ryan in 1973.

— nugget chef (@jayhaykid) July 11, 2024

Paul Skenes is the first pitcher with 7+ strikeouts in at least 10 of his 1st 11 career app (since at least 1901)

— Sarah Langs (@SlangsOnSports) July 11, 2024

The sky is the limit for the Pirates' new top pitcher and if you have faith in him keeping this momentum going in the second half of the season, now is the time to place those bets on him to win the NL Cy Young.

Fernando Valenzuela for the Los Angeles Dodgers in 1981 is the only player in MLB history to win Rookie of the Year and the Cy Young in the same season.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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