Pelicans vs. Heat Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for New Year’s Day (Jan. 1)

The Heat are heavily favored at home on New Year's Day.

Miami Heat guard Tyler Herro is a solid prop target on Wednesday. / Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Make it 10 straight losses for the New Orleans Pelicans, who haven’t been able to survive the injury bug in the 2024-25 season.

New Orleans is now a road underdog on New Year’s Day against the Miami Heat and Tyler Herro. Herro is having a career year, averaging career-highs in points, rebounds, and assists per game while shooting over 40 percent from 3. 

With Jimmy Butler trade rumors circulating the Heat, and Butler missing time due to an illness, it’s been Herro and Bam Adebayo who have been relied on to keep Miami in the playoff mix in the Eastern Conference.

The playoffs aren’t a consideration for the Pelicans at this point, and one has to wonder if they will consider trading some pieces at the deadline.

For now, I’m focused on Wednesday’s matchup between these teams.

Here’s how to bet on it, including the latest odds, player props and prediction on New Year’s Day. 

Pelicans vs. Heat Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Pelicans +9 (-112)
• Heat -9 (-108)

Moneyline

• Pelicans: +310
• Heat: -395

Total

• 222.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

Pelicans vs. Heat How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, Jan. 1
• Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: Kaseya Center
• How to Watch (TV): Bally Sports (Local)
• Pelicans record: 5-28
• Heat record: 16-14

Pelicans vs. Heat Injury Reports

Pelicans Injury Report

• Jose Alvarado – doubtful
• Brandon Ingram – out
• Zion Williamson – out
• Karlo Matkovic – out
• Jeremiah Robinson-Earl – questionable

Heat Injury Report

• Keshad Johnson – questionable
• Nikola Jovic – available
• Dru Smith – out
• Terry Rozier – out
• Josh Richardson – out
• Duncan Robinson – questionable

Pelicans vs. Heat Best NBA Prop Bets

New Orleans Pelicans Best NBA Prop Bet

• Trey Murphy III OVER 19.5 Points (-110)

Pelicans sharpshooter Trey Murphy III has cleared 19.5 points in five of his last six games, attempting at least 16 shots in six of his last seven. 

That’s pretty solid usage for a shooter of Murphy’s caliber, and he’s been asked to handle a bigger workload with Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson both out of the lineup with injuries. 

Murphy enters this matchup averaging 20.1 points per game on the season and 23.4 points per game over his last nine matchups. 

Miami Heat Best NBA Prop Bet

• Tyler Herro OVER 11.5 Rebounds and Assists (-110)

So far this season, Herro is averaging career-highs in rebounds (5.7) and assists (5.2) per game, and he’s taken a step forward in those departments as of late. 

Over his last 10 games, Herro is averaging 6.8 rebounds and 5.9 assists per game, clearing 11.5 rebounds and assists in six of those matchups. 

He should be able to have a big game against a New Orleans team that is 26th in opponent rebounds and 25th in opponent assists per game. 

Pelicans vs. Heat Prediction and Pick

If there’s one spot to fade this banged up New Orleans team, it’s as a road underdog.

The Pelicans are just 3-9 against the spread in 12 games as road dogs, posting an average scoring margin of -19.1 points in those games. Absolutely awful. 

Meanwhile, the Heat are 6-5 against the spread as home favorites with an average scoring margin of +8.5 points in those games.

Losing Rozier (suspension) does limit Miami’s offensive ceiling, but Jimmy Butler is expected to be back on Wednesday. I’ll back Miami to improve an impressive home record already this season (9-5 straight up, 7-7 ATS).

Pick: Heat -9 (-108)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.