Penn State vs. Michigan State Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Wednesday, Jan. 15

Michigan State's Jeremy Fears Jr., left, celebrates with Jaxon Kohler, right, after Fears' score and a Florida Atlantic foul during the first half on Saturday, Dec. 21, 2024, in East Lansing.
Michigan State's Jeremy Fears Jr., left, celebrates with Jaxon Kohler, right, after Fears' score and a Florida Atlantic foul during the first half on Saturday, Dec. 21, 2024, in East Lansing. / Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Michigan State’s torrid start to Big Ten play continued over the weekend by blitzing Northwestern over the weekend. 

Undefeated in Big Ten play and winners of nine straight, can Michigan State keep up its stellar run against Penn State? The Nittany Lions lost a tight game at home to Oregon without its leading guard Ace Baldwin. What’s the latest on Baldwin and how does that impact the betting action in this one? 

Here’s our betting preview for Wednesday’s Big Ten matchup.

Penn State vs. Michigan State Odds, Spread and Total

Spread 

  • Penn State: +11.5 (-114)
  • Michigan State: -11.5 (-106)

Moneyline

  • Penn State: +550
  • Michigan State: -720

Total: 153.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Penn State vs. Michigan State How to Watch

  • Date: Wednesday, January 15th
  • Game Time: 7:30 PM EST
  • Venue: Jack Bresline Students Events Center
  • How to Watch (TV): Big Ten Network
  • Penn State Record: 12-5
  • Michigan State Record: 14-2

Penn State vs. Michigan State Key Players to Watch

Penn State

Nick Kern: If Baldwin can’t play again, expect another heavy dose of Kern in this game, who had a team-high 20 field goal attempts against Oregon. Kern also increased his assist rate in the loss, dishing out four assists and opening the floor for the likes of Freddie Dilione V (four-for-six from three), which was a nice adjustment to the loss of Baldwin. 

Michigan State

Jeremy Fars: Fears continues to dazzle with more reps as the starting point guard for this Sparty team. He is fresh off an efficient 12 points and eight assists with only one turnover on Sunday against Northwestern. Fears has the highest assist rate in Big Ten play across the league, posting a gaudy 52% mark. 

Penn State vs. Michigan State Prediction and Pick

Baldwin’s status remains up in the air for Wednesday as he has missed the last game-and-a-half with a back injury. The team’s lead guard and highest usage player is of course impactful to the point spread. 

However, regardless of his status, I believe this game figures to be more of a struggle than the point spread indicates. Michigan State’s flaw in Big Ten play has been its sloppy ball handling, 15th in turnover rate. That’s massive against Penn State’s elite defense that is leading the Big Ten in turnover percentage and would get a boon with Baldwin back on the floor. 

However, Michigan State is an elite transition denial team and has the length to shut off the interior for the rim-running Penn State offense. Of course, without Baldwin, the team loses a ton of on-ball creation, and even with him, I don’t feel confident about this offensive matchup against Sparty’s defense that is ninth in field goal percentage allowed near the rim, per Haslametrics.  

I think this game is a fairly sloppy one as both defenses should be able to limit the opposing offense and this game stays under the total. 

PICK: UNDER 153.5


Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Reed Wallach
REED WALLACH

Reed is a Senior Editor at SI Betting. He grew up in New Jersey and graduated from the University of Wisconsin. His passion lies with the Brooklyn Nets, but is always hunting for an edge.