Penn State vs. Oregon Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for Big Ten Conference Championship Game

Reed Wallach | 20 Hours Ago

Nov 30, 2024; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Dillon Gabriel (8) throws a pass during the second half against the Washington Huskies at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images / Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

Penn State is a surprising entrant to the Big Ten Championship Game after Ohio State’s loss to Michigan as the Nittany Lions will look to stop Oregon's undefeated season. 

The Ducks have hit the ground running in Big Ten play, its first season in the league, undefeated thus far and looking to tie a bow on what would be the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff with a win. Can Oregon outlast a sturdy Penn State defense that has a dynamic offense around a potent offense and Mackey Award contender Tyler Warren at tight end? 

Here’s how to bet on the Big Ten title game. 

Penn State vs. Oregon Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Penn State: +3.5 (-110)
• Oregon: -3.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Penn State: +135
• Oregon: -155

Total: 49.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Penn State vs. Oregon How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, December 7th
• Game Time: 8:00 PM EST
• Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): CBS
• Penn State Record: 11-1
• Oregon Record: 12-0

Penn State vs. Oregon Key Players to Watch

Penn State 

Drew Allar: Allar has been tasked with engineering the Penn State offense that has been lightly challenged this season. Despite a mid-season knee injury, the Penn State quarterback has been incredibly efficient all season, completing nearly 72% of his passes on the year. Only rarely has the Penn State offense been behind on the scoreboard, and that’s where we’ve seen some questions about Allar’s true effectiveness, including when he had three interceptions against USC and failed to pass for more than 150 yards against Ohio State. Can Oregon’s defense keep the Penn State passing game down as well? 

Oregon

Dillon Gabriel: The engineer behind the Ducks offense, the veteran Gabriel has been as steady as they come in the sport. Despite some injuries around the skill position group, the left-handed signal-caller has gotten better and better as the year has gone on, completing nearly 73% of his passes with 3,272 yards and a 24-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Gabriel is a rush threat as well and the Ducks have used him in that facet as well, which can be utilized heavily against a vaunted Penn State pass rush. 

Penn State vs. Oregon Prediction and Pick

To me, and clearly oddsmakers, the Ducks do have the edge in this one as I believe the team has far more avenues to victory. 

While Penn State’s defensive line is among the best in the country, I question the upside of this offense that has been lightly tested this season. The team lacks a dynamic pass-catching weapon that can stretch the field vertically which can give the Oregon defense something to think about. 

The big question for me is if Penn State can win on early downs. The Nittany Lions are 11th in early downs EPA/Play, per GameonPaper, while Oregon is 55th in the same metric on defense. However, the Ducks have been excellent at getting off the field, ranking 13th in third and fourth down success rate. 

If Penn State gets behind the sticks, that’s where I struggle to see the team keeping up. If the team can get Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton going in the run game against an Oregon defense that has been hit-or-miss defending the run at times, the team should be able to get into scoring chances. 

However, I see more versatility on the Oregon side that makes me confident the team can win the Big Ten Championship. The team is incredibly efficient and has proven it can win through the air and on the ground with running back Jordan James. It also helps that Tez Johnson returned last week from injury and should continue to see more snaps after missing a few weeks with a shoulder injury. 

To be clear, Penn State’s defensive line is among the best in the country, ranking top 10 in pass rush grading according to Pro Football Focus. Oregon may find itself at times struggling to stay on schedule, and it has had issues generating chunk plays all season, below the national average in explosive pass and rush rate. 

That’s why I land on the under in this game. 

The normally aggressive Dan Lanning may opt to be more conservative as he trusts his defense to keep a lid on a run-first Penn State offense that is reliant on being schemed open by offensive coordinator Andy Kotelenecki which can lead to more prodding drives and punts. 

I lean Oregon winning the title, but ultimately I’ll side with the under. 

PICK: UNDER 49.5

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Follow Reed on Twitter @ReedWallach and get all his college football bets on betstamp @rw33

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