Penn State vs. USC Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 7

Reed Wallach | Oct 8, 2024

Oct 5, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; USC Trojans quarterback Miller Moss (7) warms up before the game against the Minnesota Golden Gophers at Huntington Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-Imagn Images / Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

USC has had its welcome to the Big Ten moment already. 

The Trojans high-flying offense has been grounded in Big Ten play, losing twice to run-first offenses in Michigan and Minnesota. Now, the team returns home reeling with an elite Penn State coming to Los Angeles. Can the Nittany Lions score an impressive road win as it builds up a College Football Playoff case. 

Can USC’s offense round into form back at home and provide a scare  to PSU? 

Here’s our betting preview. 

Penn State vs. USC Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Penn State: -5.5 (-105)
• USC: +5.5 (-115)

Moneyline

• Penn State: -196
• Oregon: +160

Total: 50.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Penn State vs. USC How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, October 11th
• Game Time: 3:30 PM EST
• Venue: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
• How to Watch (TV): CBS
• Penn State Record: 5-0
• USC Record: 3-2

Penn State vs. USC Key Players to Watch

Penn State 

Nicholas Singleton: Singleton missed the Nittany Lions' win against UCLA last week due to a stomach bug, but is expected to return for the USC game in hopes of helping Kaytron Allen shoulder the load on the ground. Penn State’s offense has been efficient under first year offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnecki, but it all centers around the team’s ground game. The team is 25th in yards per carry and will face a USC defense that is allowing more than five yards per carry on the year.

USC

Miller Moss: The USC offense is sputtering a bit. Physical defenses have taken its toll on the team’s offensive line, but Moss is also struggling to create explosive plays with his arm. The team is bottom five nationally in explosive pass rate and his ability to push the ball down the field is starting to become an issue. Moss is completing 38-of-69 passes that travel more than 10 yards this season, per Pro Football Focus. 

Penn State vs. USC Prediction and Pick

I still have my reservations about this Penn State defense. 

While elite, the team hasn’t been tested all that much in the secondary and ranks 37th in EPA/Pass despite a relatively easy strength of schedule to date. Can USC find some answers with one of the best game planners in the country in Lincoln Riley on the other side of the field? 

USC is off a shaky offensive showing against Minnesota, but 30 miles per hour gusts definitely played a role in the team’s pass-first offense struggling. 

The Penn State defense can be had through the air and I believe Riley can find answers back at home. The Nittany Lions do rank 35th in coverage grade and this will be the most talented passing game the team has faced this season, on the road nonetheless. 

Meanwhile, while Penn State hasn’t looked interested in putting up points over the last few weeks, the team has a high ceiling, evident in the team’s 34-point effort at West Virginia in which it posted nearly eight yards per play. 

I believe this is a game where PSU opens up the playbook, and a healthy Singleton can help get the team back to full strength. The USC defense is improved, but far from elite still, 57th in EPA/Play and struggling to get to the quarterback, outside the top 100 in sacks and tackles for loss. 

This total is too low for a Lincoln Riley-led offense. Give me the over. 

PICK: OVER 50.5

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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