Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Ja Morant, Tyrese Haliburton, Pacers-Knicks)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the NBA action on Friday, Oct. 25.

Memphis Grizzlies guard Ja Morant. / Petre Thomas-Imagn Images

Through three days of the 2024-25 NBA season, we’ve had two great days (4-1 and 3-1) and one awful day (0-4). 

That’s how things go early in the season when teams are making their debuts, but now we have at least one game this season for every team to look at when placing Friday night’s wagers. 

Tonight, I’m focused on some All-Stars in the prop market, as well as two underdogs to cover the spread on the road. 

There are plenty of intriguing games in the Association tonight, including a New York Knicks-Indiana Pacers playoff rematch and a Los Angeles Lakers-Phoenix Suns meeting in L.A.

Let’s build on Thursday’s 3-1 showing with these five plays for Friday. 

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024-25 season record: 7-6 (-0.13 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1017-951-22 (+37.96 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

• Indiana Pacers +4.5 (-108) vs. New York Knicks – 0.5 unit
• Tyrese Haliburton OVER 27.5 Points and Assists (-115)
• Ja Morant OVER 34.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-110) – 0.5 unit
• Giannis Antetokounmpo OVER 28.5 Points (-120)
• Charlotte Hornets +5 (-108) vs. Atlanta Hawks – 0.5 unit

Indiana Pacers +4.5 (-108) vs. New York Knicks – 0.5 unit

The New York Knicks looked a little disjointed – especially on the defensive end – in their opener against Boston.

While Indiana isn’t going to hit 29 3-pointers like Boston did (if the Pacers do, I'll tip my hat), it does pose an issue for the Knicks defensively after Boston attacked Karl-Anthony Towns in the pick-and-roll on Tuesday. 

I don't have access to the Second Spectrum numbers, but I'm guessing the Celtics scored, like, infinity points per play whenever they put Karl-Anthony Towns in action. Torched NYK in the drop, when he was up near the level, when they sent a second defender, whatever. Demolition. pic.twitter.com/D87ju0czrI

— Dan Devine (@YourManDevine) October 23, 2024

Indiana has a much deeper roster than the Knicks, even if New York’s top five is a stronger unit. 

Last postseason, the Pacers pressured the Knicks full court and looked to get out and run every chance they got – something that was uncomfortable for Tom Thibodeau’s team (30th in pace last season). 

Does Rick Carlisle deploy a similar attack in a regular season game?

New York’s margin for error is really small right now with the lack of bench depth on the roster, and it is still learning how to play together with Mikal Bridges and Towns now in the fold. 

I’ll take the points with the Pacers on Friday night. 

Tyrese Haliburton OVER 27.5 Points and Assists (-115)

I’m buying low on All-Star guard Tyrese Haliburton against the Knicks on Friday night.

Hali shot poorly (6-for-18 from the field, 1-for-9 from 3) in the Pacers’ season-opening win against the Detroit Pistons, but he apparently changed his pregame routine this season, something he shared after the game he won’t be doing anymore.

On ESPN’s Brian Windhorst and the Hoop Collective, it was discussed that Haliburton took a pregame nap before the Pistons game – something he doesn’t usually do – because of advice he got from Steph Curry this summer during the Olympics.

The Pacers guard ended up coming out sluggish, and he shared he’ll no longer be employing that strategy. 

Tyrese Haliburton jokingly blamed Steph Curry for his slow shooting start, before he got going last night 😂

“He’ll be getting a text from me…No more pregame naps for Tyrese.” pic.twitter.com/R8ne42hl6v

— Indiana Pacers (@Pacers) October 24, 2024

But really, why this bet?

Well, Hali averaged a league-high 10.9 assists per game last season to go with 20.1 points – easily clearing 27.5 points and assists on an average basis. In seven playoff games against New York last season, he cleared this number three times, and I expect him to bounce back as a shooter in his second game of the season. 

The fact that Haliburton was pushing 20 shots in Game 1 is a good sign for his usage as a scorer in the 2024-25 season. 

Ja Morant OVER 34.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-110) – 0.5 unit

Memphis Grizzlies star Ja Morant had a solid season opener in a win over the Utah Jazz, despite the fact that Taylor Jenkins played him just 28 minutes.

We may not see any high 30-minute games from Morant early in the season, but the star guard may be undervalued against the Houston Rockets on Friday. 

In Game 1 against Utah, Morant had 22 points, five rebounds and 10 assists on 7-of-12 shooting from the field (37 PRA), yet he’s set at just 34.5 PRA on Friday.

Houston has a better defense than Utah, but it was torched by another young point guard – Charlotte’s LaMelo Ball – for 34 points, eight rebounds and 11 assists in its season opener. 

With Jaren Jackson Jr. doubtful, that should mean more shots for Morant and Desmond Bane, and I’d expect Morant to take more than 12 shot attempts in his second game of the season.

Last season (nine games), Ja averaged 25.1 points, 5.6 rebounds and 8.1 assists per game (38.8 PRA) in just over 35 minutes per game. He attempted 18.9 shots per game last season, 19.9 shots per game in the 2022-23 season and 20.6 shots per game in the 2021-22 season.

Expect Morant’s usage – at least scoring the ball – to increase going forward. 

Giannis Antetokounmpo OVER 28.5 Points (-120)

I’m going back to the well after Giannis Antetokounmpo finished with just 25 points on 11 shots in the season opener against the Philadelphia 76ers.

Yes, we missed on the Giannis prop on Wednesday, but his shot attempts were down from where I expected and he struggled from the free-throw line (9-for-16) in the Bucks’ win. 

Chicago doesn’t really have an answer for Antetokounmpo defensively, and it allowed 33 points to Brandon Ingram (123 points overall) in a loss to the New Orleans Pelicans on Wednesday. Dejounte Murray broke his hand in that game and Trey Murphy III and Zion Williamson didn’t play, yet the Bulls couldn’t stop anyone. 

Last season, Giannis put up 35, 26, 32 and 46 points against the Bulls in four games. After he averaged over 30 points per game last season, he’s a must bet with this number still at 28.5. I expect him to attempt more than 11 shots in Game 2 of the season. 

Charlotte Hornets +5 (-108) vs. Atlanta Hawks – 0.5 unit

The Charlotte Hornets are without Brandon Miller – who left their season opener early and played just 11 minutes – but I still like them against the Atlanta Hawks on Friday.

Atlanta won against the Brooklyn Nets in its season opener, but Nic Claxton was on a minutes limit for the lowly Nets and Atlanta still only won by four points. That also came in a game where Onyeka Okongwu scored 28 points – do we really expect that again? 

Charlotte upset the Houston Rockets as 7.5-point dogs on the road in its season opener, and this team – while LaMelo Ball is healthy – could be frisky in the Eastern Conference. 

Last season, Charlotte only won 21 games last season, but it was 7-15 with Ball in the lineup and 14-46 without him. 

The Hornets have much more NBA-level talent with additions from Tre Mann, Grant Williams (both last season) and Josh Green. After winning outright despite a Miller injury and just 10 points from Miles Bridges, I at least think Charlotte can hang around in this matchup.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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