Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Luka Doncic, Giannis, Grizzlies, Cavs)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the NBA action on Tuesday, Feb. 25, including a pick for Luka Doncic in his first game against Dallas.

Los Angeles Lakers guard Luka Doncic is an interesting prop target in his first game against Dallas. / Christopher Hanewinckel-Imagn Images

Luka Doncic vs. the Dallas Mavericks.

The sports world turns its focus to the first time that the former Mavs star gets to face his former team, as the Los Angeles Lakers host Dallas on Tuesday night. 

So, we have to bet on Luka, right? I have a pick that you may not expect for the All-NBA guard, as well as three other bets to dive into for Tuesday night’s NBA action. 

Over the last three days, I’ve gone 9-3 in these NBA picks, putting my season-long record back in the green. 

Let’s keep things rolling for this seven-game slate on Tuesday night! 

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024-25 season record: 158-153-4 (+0.31 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1168-1098-26 (+38.41 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today 

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Derrick White OVER 13.5 Points (-130)
• Luka Doncic UNDER 49.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-120) – 0.5 unit
• Cleveland Cavaliers-Memphis Grizzlies Moneyline Parlay (-130) – 0.5 unit
• Giannis Antetokounmpo OVER 26.5 Points (-120)

Derrick White OVER 13.5 Points (-130)

I was pretty surprised to see this line so low for Boston Celtics guard Derrick White on Tuesday night, especially since Jrue Holiday is out of the lineup. This could lead to a little more usage for White on the offensive end.

This season, the C’s guard is averaging 16.2 points per game while shooting 44.5 percent from the field and 38.4 percent from 3. He’s picked up 14 or more points in nine of his last 11 games, averaging 17.7 points per game over that stretch.

He’s also cleared this prop in two of three games against the Toronto Raptors this season, who are in the bottom five in the NBA in defensive rating over their last 10 games.

Luka Doncic UNDER 49.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-120) – 0.5 unit

Everyone, and I mean everyone, will bet on Luka Doncic to have a big game on Tuesday night against his former team. 

I expect him to play well, but I will also make a contrarian bet on the UNDER of his points, rebounds, and assists prop.

Even in his solid showing against Denver on Saturday, Doncic finished with 49 PRA, and his other three games with Los Angeles have resulted in 23, 24, and 33 PRA.

Plus, if there is any team that is familiar with Doncic’s offensive game, it’s the Mavs, who will likely be motivated to slow him down as much as possible tonight. Luka can still have a great game while falling short of this prop. 

Cleveland Cavaliers-Memphis Grizzlies Moneyline Parlay (-130) – 0.5 unit

Cleveland Cavaliers

This may be more of a fade of the Orlando Magic than it is anything else.

The Magic are just 3-4-1 against the spread when set as home underdogs this season, and they’ve gone just 9-15 straight up in the 24 games that Jalen Suggs has missed.

Suggs is out once again on Tuesday, and the Magic are sizable underdogs against a Cleveland team that is 14-8 against the spread as a road favorite while posting an average scoring margin of +10.4 points per game in those matchups.

The Cavs have the best record in the NBA – including a 20-6 record on the road – but their major advantage in this game comes on the offensive end.

Cleveland is the No. 1 offense in the league, and it also is an elite shooting team, ranking first in the NBA in effective field goal percentage. Meanwhile, Orlando is just 28th in offensive rating and 29th in effective field goal percentage this season.

Plus, the Magic have struggled mightily against teams over .500 this season, going 8-20 straight up. Even if the Cavs don’t cover, I expect them to win this rematch from the first round of last season's playoffs on Tuesday night. 

Memphis Grizzlies

I don’t think there is anything that could convince me to bet on the Phoenix Suns right now, especially as massive underdogs on the road against the Memphis Grizzlies. 

Over their last 10 games, the Suns rank 28th in the NBA in net rating, and they’ve now lost eight of their last 10 to slip further out of the play-in tournament picture in the West. 

In that same stretch, Memphis is 10th in the NBA in net rating despite winning just six of its games. The Grizzlies have been an elite team at home all season long, going 16-8 against the spread as a home favorite while posting an average scoring margin of +12.0 points in those games. They’re also 21-6 straight up at home – the second-best home record in the Western Conference. 

To make matters worse for the Suns, they have the second-worst team in the NBA against the spread as road underdogs (4-9). 

The Suns have had defensive issues all season long (they’re in the bottom five in the league in defensive rating), and now they have to face a fast-paced Memphis team that is sixth overall in offensive rating. I think the Grizzlies will roll at home on Tuesday night. 

Giannis Antetokounmpo OVER 26.5 Points (-120)

It’s finally time to get back on board with Milwaukee Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo in the prop market, and we have a discounted number to do it with.

Giannis has been on a minutes limit due to his calf injury, but he played nearly 32 minutes on Sunday against Miami and took 18 shots, finishing with 23 points. Shockingly, he didn’t get to the free-throw line in that game.

I expect that to change on Tuesday night, and Giannis is set well below his season average of 31.0 points per game against Houston. Before his calf injury, Giannis had scored 30 or more points in eight of 10 games, averaging 32.8 points per game over that stretch.

With his minutes returning closer to normal, he’s a must bet on Tuesday night. 

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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