Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Pistons vs. Celtics, Domantas Sabonis)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the NBA action on Thursday, Dec. 12.

Domantas Sabonis is an elite prop target on Thursday night. / Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

After back-to-back days of NBA Cup action, the Association shifts to normal regular season action on Thursday with a three-game slate: 

• Detroit Pistons at Boston Celtics
• Toronto Raptors at Miami Heat
• Sacramento Kings at New Orleans Pelicans

There are a bunch of important players that won’t suit up tonight, including Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley, Zion Williamson, and Brandon Ingram. 

In addition to that, the Celtics have listed Jayson Tatum as questionable tonight – but they are still favored by double digits against the Pistons. 

I’m eyeing that matchup for a pair of players – one on a side and another in the prop market – on Thursday night. Plus the Pelicans-Kings matchup offers an insane value for one of the best big men in the NBA.

Let’s break down the plays for Thursday’s short slate. 

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024-25 season record: 77-75-3 (+0.35 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1086-1018-25 (+37.73 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Detroit Pistons +12.5 (-112) vs. Boston Celtics – 0.5 unit
• Domantas Sabonis OVER 12.5 Rebounds (-130) – 0.5 unit
• Kristaps Porzingis OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (+126) – 0.5 unit

Detroit Pistons +12.5 (-112) vs. Boston Celtics – 0.5 unit

Boston has won 11 consecutive games against the Pistons, but I think Detroit is a little undervalued in this matchup given how well it has played against Boston this season.

The Pistons have losses by just six and 10 points against the C’s, scoring at least 118 points in both of those games. The Boston defense has taken a bit of a step back this season, ranking 10th in the league in defensive rating after a top-three finish last season. 

Boston also isn’t covering the spread as a home favorite this season, going just 4-9 overall while posting an average margin of victory of just 7.7 points per game. As for Detroit, it is an impressive 6-3-1 against the spread as a road underdog.

As long as Cade Cunningham plays – he’s off the injury report after dealing with an ailment earlier this season – the Pistons have shown they have a much higher floor this season – as evidenced by their road win over New York in their last time out. 

I’ll take the points with Detroit in this Thursday night matchup. 

Domantas Sabonis OVER 12.5 Rebounds (-130) – 0.5 unit

New Orleans has been banged up all season long – down Ingram and Williamson tonight – and it came into the season with very limited options in the frontcourt. 

This makes tonight a prime matchup on the glass for Sacramento Kings big man Domantas Sabonis. 

So far this season, Sabonis is averaging 12.7 rebounds per game, and now he gets to face a thin Pelicans front line that is led by rookie Yves Missi and veteran Daniel Theis – who is undersized at the center spot. 

So far in the 2024-25 campaign, the Pelicans are just 26th in the league in opponent rebounds per game and 24th in rebounding percentage. Sabonis should have a field day on the boards on Thursday. 

Kristaps Porzingis OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (+126) – 0.5 unit

A little plus-money prop tonight in Boston?

I like this bet for Kristaps Porzingis even more if Tatum ends up sitting, but regardless, I think this a solid number to get him at on Thursday. 

Porzingis had arguably his best game of the 2024-25 season against Detroit on Dec. 4, dropping 26 points on 8-of-17 shooting (3-for-7 from 3). 

KP is a tough matchup for any defense given his long-range shooting ability, and he’s taken a ton of 3s so far in limited minutes. Porzingis is averaging 2.4 made 3s on 7.0 attempts per game (34.3 percent), attempting at least five shots from deep in all five of his games this season.

Detroit ranks 23rd in the NBA in opponent 3-pointers made and even worse in opponent 3-point percentage (28th) this season. Don’t be shocked if KP knocks down a bunch of long-range shots tonight.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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