Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Thunder-Nuggets, Knicks-Hawks and Pacers-Magic)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the NBA action on Wednesday, Nov. 6.

Oklahoma City Thunder guard/forward Jalen Williams. / Brian Murphy-Imagn Images

After a day off for Election Day, the NBA returns with a massive slate on Wednesday night. 

I’m writing today’s column a day in advance, so I’m only focusing on some game lines that jumped out to me, including yet another moneyline parlay after we hit on Monday’s three-team play. 

I don’t love betting parlays in any fashion, but identifying a few teams that I like to win has been profitable – so far – this season. 

Let’s break down the picks for Nov. 6.  

NBA Best Bets Record to Date

• 2024-25 season record: 23-30-1 (-4.10 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1033-975-23 (+33.98 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• New York Knicks-Indiana Pacers Moneyline Parlay (-130)
• Oklahoma City Thunder -5 (-110) vs. Denver Nuggets

New York Knicks-Indiana Pacers Moneyline Parlay (-130)

We are perfect on moneyline parlays this season, and I’m hoping to keep that rolling with a two-pick lay on Wednesday. 

New York Knicks

There are a ton of reasons to like the Knicks on Wednesday after they lost to the Houston Rockets on Monday night.

First off, New York has not lost back-to-back games that OG Anunoby has played in since acquiring him last season, and it is heavily favored (eight points) in this game against the Atlanta Hawks. 

Atlanta is just 1-5 since starting the season 2-0, and it’s gone a brutal 1-7 against the spread overall. 

The Hawks rank 27th in the NBA in defensive rating, which is going to be a problem against a New York team that is third in offensive rating and sixth in effective field goal percentage so far this season. 

I love this as a bounce-back spot for the Knicks. 

Indiana Pacers

Well, the Orlando Magic are still without Paolo Banchero, and that’s a great sign for the Pacers’ chances of winning at home after they upset the Dallas Mavericks on Monday. 

The Magic have lost by 11 to the Cleveland Cavaliers, 23 to the Dallas Mavericks and 16 to the Oklahoma City Thunder in three games without Banchero, falling to 4-11 all time when the former No. 1 overall pick sits.

I simply don’t know how anyone could justify a bet on the Magic right now given how bad they’ve looked without Banchero. 

Orlando has failed to reach 90 points in two of the three games since he went down, and it now ranks 29th in the league in offensive rating and 27th in effective field goal percentage.

Now, Indiana is 26th in the NBA in defensive rating – so this is an easier matchup – but the Pacers also have a high-powered offense that was No. 2 in the NBA last season. Plus, the Pacers are ninth in pace this season, so they’d love to get in a track meet – something that the Magic simply don’t have the scoring to compete with. 

Orlando is also just 2-6 against the spread on the season, so I’ll gladly back the Pacers to win in a favorable home matchup. 

Oklahoma City Thunder -5 (-110) vs. Denver Nuggets

The Oklahoma City Thunder (7-0) won the first meeting of the season against the Denver Nuggets, 102-87 in Denver, and they’re one of two undefeated teams in the NBA at this point in the season.

There are a lot of concerns for the Nuggets, as they’re just 4-3 on the season despite a fairly easy schedule, and Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon are banged up heading into this matchup. 

Injury blow to Denver: Nuggets F Aaron Gordon will miss multiple weeks due to a right calf strain, sources tell ESPN. pic.twitter.com/i26gkpNqz6

— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) November 5, 2024

Denver is just 2-5 against the spread this season, and it’s looked anything but impressive through seven games.

The Nuggets’ wins are against Utah (1-6), Brooklyn (had the lowest win total projection in the NBA entering this season) and Toronto (twice, with Immanuel Quickley and Scottie Barnes hurt). 

Not exactly impressive. Oh, and they needed overtime to beat Brooklyn and Toronto before picking up a two-point win in their second matchup with the Raptors on Monday. 

OKC is a much better team, ranking No. 1 in the NBA in net rating this season. I’m worried about Denver’s offense with two starters on the shelf, and OKC is already 6-1 against the spread on the season. 

Note: This column was written Tuesday evening, so more bets may be added on Wednesday. Follow along with my Twitter (@peterdewey2) and BetStamp (@peter2dewey) for live updates.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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